Deconstructing CRE

July jobs report: Moderate growth shows economy remains on solid footing

by Tim Savage | Aug 3, 2018

Although July's jobs report came in under the consensus expectation and the past year's average monthly gain, the economy continues to show late-cycle strength.

China real estate market likely to fend off double threat

by Henry Chin and Sam Xie | Aug 2, 2018

With escalating trade conflict with the U.S., domestic developers' mounting debt, and unprecedented deleveraging, is China’s property market entering choppy waters?

Q2 GDP Growth Strongest Since 2014

by Tim Savage | Jul 27, 2018

GDP growth in Q2 was a strong 4.1%, driven by broad gains in consumption, exports, investment and government spending.

Trade disputes so far having little impact on CRE

by Nikhil Mohan and Tim Savage | Jul 18, 2018

The U.S. and China recently placed import tariffs on $34 bn of each other’s products. The U.S. has also threatened tariffs on imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico. Should the trade disputes escalate, industrial space demand will likely decline.

Asian investors are getting less bang for their buck in the U.S.

by Richard Barkham and Taylor Jacoby | Jun 25, 2018

Rising U.S. interest rates and an uncertain outlook for the dollar have driven up hedging costs for Asian investors over the past year. This is beginning to impact U.S. CRE, with Asian investment volume down 62% year-over-year in Q1…

Rising trucking costs could mark a tipping point for U.S. consumer prices

by Nikhil Mohan | Jun 21, 2018

A significant (and worsening) shortage of truck drivers is raising shipping costs, which may spark the expected inflationary pressures that have thus far remained absent…

Presentation Slides: Machine Learning and Finance

by Tim Savage | Jun 15, 2018

And now for something completely different…

Trade Wars: which real estate properties lose the most? ​

by Bill Wheaton | May 25, 2018

The recent U.S.-China rhetoric may turn out to be just that, but we should consider what such a war might do to commercial real estate.

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Deconstructing CRE

  • July jobs report: Moderate growth shows economy remains on solid footing

    Aug 3, 2018, 14:15 PM by Tim Savage
    U.S. employment rose by 157,000 jobs in July—short of both the consensus expectation for 190,000 and the past year's average monthly gain of 203,000. Excluding losses from the Toys R Us bankruptcy, the figure was very close to target. Unemployment fell slightly to 3.9%, while labor force participation went unchanged at 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents month-over-month, and wages were up 2.7% year-over-year. Substantial revisions to May and June jobs numbers resulted in a net gain of 59,000 jobs. The past year has seen employment grow by nearly 2.4 million jobs...
  • China real estate market likely to fend off double threat

    Aug 2, 2018, 11:20 AM by Henry Chin
    Many critics claim that China’s property market is entering choppy waters, given escalating trade conflict with the U.S., domestic developers' mounting debt, and unprecedented deleveraging. The reality is more nuanced; while some sectors may endure short-term discomfort, the resilient market is likely to emerge unscathed from the current turbulence. Recent government measures, such as those opening the financial sector to qualified foreign investors and relaxing some FDI restrictions, are likely to offset much of any negative impact...
  • Q2 GDP Growth Strongest Since 2014

    Jul 27, 2018, 13:44 PM by Tim Savage
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.1% in Q2—the strongest gain since 2014. In addition, Q1 growth was revised upward to 2.2% from 2.0%. Growth was driven by broad gains in consumption, exports, investment and government spending...
  • Trade disputes so far having little impact on CRE

    Jul 18, 2018, 12:10 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    The U.S. and China recently imposed import tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s products, and may add more in weeks to come. The U.S. has also threatened tariffs on imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico; if we followed through, they would likely respond in kind. Given that imports require more space than exports, should trade disputes escalate, demand for U.S. industrial will likely decline...

Featured Articles

  • U.S. Macro Outlook and Forecast Scenarios, Q1 2018

    May 22, 2018, 18:18 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    For U.S. GDP, Q1 2018 was the best Q1 since 2015, despite a volatile stock market and the announcement of potential tariffs on certain imports rattling markets. Unemployment dropped to a new low in April, but labor market strength has yet to affect wages or inflation substantially. Limited wage inflation since January has brought a degree of calm to equity markets. Strong consumer spending, higher private investment and the recent tax cuts will drive growth in 2018.

    For CRE, the generally stimulative new tax plan will benefit multifamily in particular. Construction labor shortages, steel tariffs and interest rates will be negative factors. EA’s forecasts are largely unchanged from last quarter, with the baseline anticipating a mild cyclical downturn starting in mid-2019, followed by a quick return to growth.

    Full story
  • 2018 U.S. Market Outlook

    Dec 15, 2017, 11:10 AM by CBRE Americas Research
    CBRE’s 2018 U.S. Market Outlook forecasts performance trends for the coming year for all major commercial real estate sectors. Beyond the fundamentals of supply and demand, we explore certain macro factors that are likely to impact the industry: tax reform, infrastructure spending, immigration policy, health care policy, business spending and investment, among others. Our baseline scenario anticipates continued economic growth and rising employment in 2018, which should benefit all major asset classes.
    Full story


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