Deconstructing CRE

Industrial automation may reduce net demand for industrial space

by Bill Wheaton | May 18, 2018

Will automation radically change the service sector's demand for space? U.S. manufacturing has been automating for decades—here we look at how robots and automation have impacted U.S. industrial space markets since 1990.

Unemployment lowest since 2000; slow wage growth cools bond market

by Nikhil Mohan | May 4, 2018

Monthly jobs reports continue to show a mixed economic picture. April's job gains were lower than expected, while unemployment fell due to 236,000 leaving the workforce. Wage growth slowed, despite the shrinking labor pool.

Presentation Slides: The wall of capital, and Emerging tech cities

by Tim Savage | May 3, 2018

Richard and I discussed capital flows and Live, Work, Play at the recent CBRE 2018 Multifamily Conference in Chicago. Download our slides.

Q1 GDP stronger than anticipated

by Nikhil Mohan | Apr 27, 2018

Q1 GDP growth of 2.3% came in under Q4's 2.9% but was quicker than the 2.1% consensus estimate. This better-than-expected performance came despite volatile stock markets and the announcement of potential tariffs on certain imports.

A change to EA's apartment methodology

by Matt Vance | Apr 27, 2018

Our Q1 apartment data features revised histories, occasioned by growth in our dataset. As our data providers expand their sample sizes and geographic coverage, we've enhanced our methodology for greater flexibility in incorporating new data.

U.S. hotels' operating efficiency at its highest since 1960

by Jamie Lane | Apr 25, 2018

For U.S. hotels, achieving both revenue and profit gains is increasingly difficult. CBRE Hotels' Americas Research shares data and observations from its annual survey.

Multifamily to get big boost from new tax plan

by Tim Savage and Jing Ren | Apr 25, 2018

The recent tax reform will nearly double the number of markets in which the tax benefits of renting vs. buying are expected to increase.

Presentation Slides: Will this be the longest real estate boom ever?

by Tim Savage | Apr 20, 2018

Richard Barkham, EA’s Chairman and CBRE Global Chief Economist, recently addressed the National Association for Business Economists regarding the economic cycle and its current implications for CRE. Download here.

Is a Fiscal-Monetary “Collision” Imminent?

by Nikhil Mohan | Apr 6, 2018

A poorly timed fiscal stimulus—in the face of tighter monetary policy and an economy that has reached or is near its potential—could leave the economy weaker in the years to come.

Apartment supply: What a market needs

by Matt Vance | Mar 30, 2018

Although many U.S. apartment markets and submarkets are seeing elevated supply trends soften their fundamentals, in some cases this is needed supply and these are the natural “growing pains” of densifying, maturing cities.

Notices

 

U.S. Macro Outlook and Scenarios, Q1 2018

Fiscal stimulus to provide a modest boost to growth, and a mild cyclical downturn beginning mid-2019: EA's baseline and alternative forecast scenarios detailed here.

U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and Beyond

The Fed Funds rate, the 10-year, debt pricing and more, this year and next. Read it here.

EA RELEASE CALENDAR

Deconstructing CRE

  • Industrial automation may reduce net demand for industrial space

    May 18, 2018, 14:24 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Voices everywhere are suggesting that automation is about to radically change how the service sector works and generates demand for space. With U.S. manufacturing having been automating its processes for decades, we have just completed a study of how robots and automation have impacted U.S. industrial space markets since 1990.
  • Forecasting: An Ongoing Discussion

    May 10, 2018, 10:23 AM by Tim Savage
    Our continuing discussion regarding the informed judgment and science of forecasting.
  • April Jobs Report: Unemployment Lowest Since 2000; Slow Wage Inflation Cools Bond Market

    May 4, 2018, 12:55 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Monthly jobs reports continue to offer a mixed picture of the economy. April's job gains were lower than expected, while unemployment fell due to 236,000 leaving the workforce. Wage growth continued to puzzle, slowing despite the shrinking labor pool. Although low jobs numbers and slower wage growth might suggest slowing economic growth, lower employment gains might indicate that the labor market is reaching its limit, making an acceleration in wages imminent. The underemployment rate will be a key metric in the coming months; the still-high rate is often seen as a sign that the labor market has yet to reach capacity, explaining why wages haven’t increased significantly.
  • Presentation Slides: The Wall of Capital, and Emerging Tech Cities

    May 3, 2018, 11:54 AM by Tim Savage
    It was a pleasure to present at the recent CBRE 2018 Multifamily Conference in Chicago. Presentation materials are available here.

    Richard discussed global capital flows and the important drivers of the "wall of capital" targeting U.S. CRE. He notes that many of these drivers will likely remain strong for a decade.

    I addressed emerging tech cities, employing EA's proprietary LWP index and transactions database.

Featured Articles

  • U.S. Macro Outlook and Forecast Scenarios, Q1 2018

    May 22, 2018, 18:18 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    For U.S. GDP, Q1 2018 was the best Q1 since 2015, despite a volatile stock market and the announcement of potential tariffs on certain imports rattling markets. Unemployment dropped to a new low in April, but labor market strength has yet to affect wages or inflation substantially. Limited wage inflation since January has brought a degree of calm to equity markets. Strong consumer spending, higher private investment and the recent tax cuts will drive growth in 2018.

    For CRE, the generally stimulative new tax plan will benefit multifamily in particular. Construction labor shortages, steel tariffs and interest rates will be negative factors. EA’s forecasts are largely unchanged from last quarter, with the baseline anticipating a mild cyclical downturn starting in mid-2019, followed by a quick return to growth.

    Full story
  • 2018 U.S. Market Outlook

    Dec 15, 2017, 11:10 AM by CBRE Americas Research
    CBRE’s 2018 U.S. Market Outlook forecasts performance trends for the coming year for all major commercial real estate sectors. Beyond the fundamentals of supply and demand, we explore certain macro factors that are likely to impact the industry: tax reform, infrastructure spending, immigration policy, health care policy, business spending and investment, among others. Our baseline scenario anticipates continued economic growth and rising employment in 2018, which should benefit all major asset classes.
    Full story


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