How Can We Help You?

Sector and market analytics

Driven by economists and leveraged by market makers.
CRE performance across major metros and asset classes. History and forecast by CBRE.

Thought leaders abound

Depth, breadth and rigor concentrated at all levels.
Synthesizing macro factors and leading indicators into actionable national, sector and market research.

Advantage is CBRE

Perspectives, scale and connections that work.
Commercial and cultural insight aligned with intellectual capital and experience to fuel informed real estate decision-making.

Which data are right for you?

Data views and extracts by scenario and on demand.
Check out the fundamentals, capital markets, and data tools now on our one-pager.

Experience the platform

See first hand why top institutional investors, direct lenders and private equity firms are clients.
Set a time that works for you.

Click the link above to access all EA Insights

Forecasting

Jan 3, 2018, 17:39 PM by User Not Found
Here is an interesting New York Times opinion piece by Ruchir Sharma, whose book is quite good.  For the moment, however, substitute the word "forecast" with the word "prediction".  To a first approximation, they are the same thing.  

In machine learning, we would say something like the following.  I trained my algorithm on a training set of hand-written characters.  In a test set, it had a 0.978 accuracy rate overall. This is a so-called multi-class problem, as we have only 10 digits (or classes).  Now, given this unlabeled hand-written digit appears on an envelope, my algorithm says it is a "1" with probability 0.984.  A "1" it is (even though it could be a "7"), and the U.S. Postal Service has been doing this for a very long time to sort mail using ZIP codes.  

In macroeconomic forecasting (or prediction), we are called upon to say something akin to "the US economy will grow by 2.3% in 2018."  The industry standard is to produce a single number to one decimal place.  As a matter of probability, however, this number will almost certainly will be wrong after the fact.  One issue here is the failure to report the uncertainty around the forecast and its sources.  That is, there may be a lack of transparency regarding the sources of uncertainty in a forecast, rather than in the act of forecasting. 

The future is uncertain.

Ready to Get Started?

60 second demos.


WATCH NOW

Experience the platform.


TRY IT TODAY

Become a client.


NEXT STEPS
redirect pin user minus plus fax mobile-phone office-phone data envelope globe outlook retail close line-arrow-down solid-triangle-down facebook globe2 google hamburger line-arrow-left solid-triangle-left linkedin play-btn line-arrow-right solid-triangle-right search twitter line-arrow-up solid-triangle-up calendar globe-americas globe-apac globe-emea external-link music picture paper pictures play gallery download rss-feed vcard