CBRE EA BLOG Deconstructing CRE

  • U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and beyond

    Feb 1, 2018, 13:45 PM by Richard Barkham
    Our near-term expectations.
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  • December rate rise: Fed raises rates as expected; three more hikes likely in 2018

    Dec 14, 2017, 13:42 PM by Jeff Havsy
    The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate 25 bps, to a target range of 1.25% to 1.50%. This was the Fed’s fourth 25-bps increase since December 2016 and was widely anticipated given the economy’s recent near-3% quarterly growth, robust job growth, record-low unemployment, modest wage gains and rising consumer and producer prices.
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  • Three-year outlook: Capital appreciation in U.S. CRE assets unlikely; investors should focus on income

    Nov 2, 2017, 14:07 PM by Serguei Chervachidze
    Across the range of likely macroeconomic scenarios, appreciation returns—the mainstay of CRE returns over the past five years—are on hold for the next three years.
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  • September rate unchanged: The beginning of quantitative tightening? Not quite

    Sep 22, 2017, 13:59 PM by Jeff Havsy
    At its latest meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 1.0%-1.25%. An increase is expected in December, with economic conditions generally good. Commercial real estate fundamentals remain strong, and a Q4 rebound in economic growth should keep them healthy at least through H1 2018.
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  • Just how high might long-term interest rates actually go?

    Jun 7, 2017, 13:49 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Some thoughts on the factors that historically have governed the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates—and a new one.
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  • A familiar slow start for GDP growth

    Apr 28, 2017, 15:46 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Q1 GDP growth was the slowest in three years. How concerned should we be?
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  • Fed Watch: Indecision by committee

    Mar 31, 2017, 12:18 PM by James Bohnaker
    Most FOMC members agree that rates will need to head higher in the next few years, but how quickly is a source of great debate. Don't be surprised to see even greater indecision as uncertainty rises later in the cycle.
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  • Higher interest rates a risk for CRE values, recession or not

    Mar 8, 2017, 11:51 AM by Serguei Chervachidze
    With the new administration at the reins and macroeconomic indicators sending mixed signals, investors are wondering what the future promises for the direction of the U.S. economy commercial real estate. This seems to be certain in investors’ minds: interest rates are likely to increase—at least in the medium term, if not in the long run. What would such increases imply for CRE, and particularly for CRE values?
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  • Fed Watch: Going with the flow

    Feb 1, 2017, 13:53 PM by James Bohnaker
    There's no reason for the Fed to be vocal at this point, and 2017's first FOMC meeting saw no policy changes made. The Fed is keenly aware of the heightened degree of fiscal uncertainty and clearly has not bought into the notion—already accepted by many economic forecasters—that fiscal stimulus will launch the economy into higher gear. EA's baseline outlook remains tempered as well, at least until we see where the new administration is heading.
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