The tax benefits of renting a home vs. buying will increase in 29 of the 35 largest U.S. markets—up from 15 markets before tax reform. Limitations on state and local tax deductions and the loss of the mortgage interest deduction on home purchases above $750,000 will marginally impact housing costs in high-cost markets, but will have negligible impact on population flows. The overall economic impact should be positive, but it's uncertain for how long, given the reform's late-cycle timing and the question of whether corporate tax savings will be sufficiently reinvested to cause job growth.
Richard Barkham, EA’s Chairman and CBRE Global Chief Economist, recently addressed the National Association for Business Economists regarding the economic cycle and its current implications for commercial real estate. As EA has consistently been at the frontier of thought leadership for commercial real estate, we thought we would share his slides and his thoughts to the broader community.
It was a pleasure to present to CBRE colleagues and clients at the Union Club League of Chicago yesterday. My discussion addressed the current global economy's near-term implications for U.S. CRE. For those interested, the slides are here.
We are pleased to welcome Dr. Richard Barkham, CBRE’s Global Chief Economist, to Boston as he takes on an additional role as EA’s new Chairman. From his London office and in his travels throughout the world, Richard has been frequently immersed in the global trends that are transforming the dynamics of local real estate markets. Richard’s perspective and presence will serve EA and its clients well, as we continue to build our platform and to integrate EA’s data science expertise with the global work of CBRE Research.
CBRE has a lot of proprietary data sitting in data "puddles." Big data is creating a data "lake" from those puddles by linking data feeds, and then using the power of machine learning to derive insights for our clients. Our just-introduced Live, Work, Play (LWP) Index is an example of a big data exercise in CRE.
Automation is suddenly making headlines in business and finance news reporting. In a recent ViewPoint, I address the broad issue of automation permanently displacing certain types of workers, and what implications that might hold for CRE.
Since the global financial crisis, we have seen numerous studies of fiscal policy, and of the so-called fiscal multiplier, which measures the response of economic variables to a one-time increase in government spending. Since the November election, there has been much talk about such spending—specifically, on infrastructure. Given recent research, however, this infrastructure spending may not be particularly stimulative.