• July jobs report: Moderate growth shows economy remains on solid footing

    Aug 3, 2018, 14:15 PM by Tim Savage
    U.S. employment rose by 157,000 jobs in July—short of both the consensus expectation for 190,000 and the past year's average monthly gain of 203,000. Excluding losses from the Toys R Us bankruptcy, the figure was very close to target. Unemployment fell slightly to 3.9%, while labor force participation went unchanged at 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents month-over-month, and wages were up 2.7% year-over-year. Substantial revisions to May and June jobs numbers resulted in a net gain of 59,000 jobs. The past year has seen employment grow by nearly 2.4 million jobs...
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  • Q2 GDP Growth Strongest Since 2014

    Jul 27, 2018, 13:44 PM by Tim Savage
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.1% in Q2—the strongest gain since 2014. In addition, Q1 growth was revised upward to 2.2% from 2.0%. Growth was driven by broad gains in consumption, exports, investment and government spending...
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  • Trade disputes so far having little impact on CRE

    Jul 18, 2018, 12:10 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    The U.S. and China recently imposed import tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s products, and may add more in weeks to come. The U.S. has also threatened tariffs on imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico; if we followed through, they would likely respond in kind. Given that imports require more space than exports, should trade disputes escalate, demand for U.S. industrial will likely decline...
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  • June jobs report: Growth beats expectations

    Jul 6, 2018, 13:21 PM by Tim Savage
    June’s jobs report signals that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, despite geopolitical and trade tensions. Other recent signs of strength include solid personal income and spending data. Jobs gains in retail, construction and manufacturing suggest that the economy continues to expand, showing late-cycle strength. While wage growth also beat expectations in June, it remains well below its historic trend.

    While financial markets have demonstrated some volatility over trade tensions, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is largely unchanged since February, and is nearly 25 bps below its May peak...
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  • Forecasting: An Ongoing Discussion

    May 10, 2018, 10:23 AM by Tim Savage
    Our continuing discussion regarding the informed judgment and science of forecasting...
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  • Presentation Slides: The Wall of Capital, and Emerging Tech Cities

    May 3, 2018, 11:54 AM by Tim Savage
    It was a pleasure to present at the recent CBRE 2018 Multifamily Conference in Chicago. Presentation materials are available here.

    Richard discussed global capital flows and the important drivers of the "wall of capital" targeting U.S. CRE. He notes that many of these drivers will likely remain strong for a decade.

    I addressed emerging tech cities, employing EA's proprietary LWP index and transactions database.
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  • Multifamily to get big boost from new tax plan

    Apr 25, 2018, 15:36 PM by Tim Savage
    The tax benefits of renting a home vs. buying will increase in 29 of the 35 largest U.S. markets—up from 15 markets before tax reform. Limitations on state and local tax deductions and the loss of the mortgage interest deduction on home purchases above $750,000 will marginally impact housing costs in high-cost markets, but will have negligible impact on population flows. The overall economic impact should be positive, but it's uncertain for how long, given the reform's late-cycle timing and the question of whether corporate tax savings will be sufficiently reinvested to cause job growth...
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  • Presentation Slides: Will this be the longest real estate boom ever?

    Apr 20, 2018, 13:34 PM by Tim Savage
    Richard Barkham, EA’s Chairman and CBRE Global Chief Economist, recently addressed the National Association for Business Economists regarding the economic cycle and its current implications for commercial real estate. As EA has consistently been at the frontier of thought leadership for commercial real estate, we thought we would share his slides and his thoughts to the broader community.
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  • The Global Economy, Global Challenges and U.S. Real Estate

    Feb 23, 2018, 14:33 PM by Tim Savage
    It was a pleasure to present to CBRE colleagues and clients at the Union Club League of Chicago yesterday. My discussion addressed the current global economy's near-term implications for U.S. CRE. For those interested, the slides are here.
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  • U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and beyond

    Feb 1, 2018, 13:45 PM by Richard Barkham
    Our near-term expectations.
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  • Talking data science with EA's Tim Savage

    Dec 27, 2017, 13:08 PM by Mary Suter
    EA's principal data scientist discusses work at EA and research he recently presented at NABE's Tec2017 conference.
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  • Data science has always been in the economist’s toolkit

    Nov 9, 2017, 15:44 PM by Maximilian Saia
    First with regression analysis and then econometrics—an indispensable and sizeable part of the machine-learning universe—the original data scientists, economists, have been at the table for decades.
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  • Big data and CRE: The value of proprietary data

    Oct 3, 2017, 12:41 PM by Tim Savage
    CRE's big data will be many, many attributes observed for a limited number of properties.
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  • Construction costs: It's the materials

    Sep 1, 2017, 12:45 PM by Tim Savage
    Does labor's relatively small share of construction costs limit the potential of labor-saving tech innovation in the industry? Meanwhile, what drives the cost of concrete?
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  • A somber reminder

    Aug 9, 2017, 14:16 PM by Tim Savage
    It's been 10 years since the GFC began. Two economists review the somber history since then.
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  • Welcoming EA's new Chairman, Dr. Richard Barkham

    Jun 1, 2017, 12:57 PM by Jeff Havsy
    We are pleased to welcome Dr. Richard Barkham, CBRE’s Global Chief Economist, to Boston as he takes on an additional role as EA’s new Chairman. From his London office and in his travels throughout the world, Richard has been frequently immersed in the global trends that are transforming the dynamics of local real estate markets. Richard’s perspective and presence will serve EA and its clients well, as we continue to build our platform and to integrate EA’s data science expertise with the global work of CBRE Research.
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  • The Fed goes open-source

    May 9, 2017, 08:34 AM by Tim Savage
    DSGE, using Julia.
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  • A classification of macroeconomics tools

    Apr 12, 2017, 09:47 AM by Tim Savage
    Olivier Blanchard, Professor Emeritus of MIT's economics department, makes a very important point: different tasks require different types of tools.
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  • "Curve Benders," a presentation by Spencer Levy, Head of Research, Americas

    Mar 23, 2017, 15:07 PM by Tim Savage
    Spencer Levy recently presented at the CBRE 2017 Investor Symposium. Here is a link to a recording of his presentation.
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  • Big data and CRE

    Mar 14, 2017, 12:08 PM by Tim Savage
    CBRE has a lot of proprietary data sitting in data "puddles." Big data is creating a data "lake" from those puddles by linking data feeds, and then using the power of machine learning to derive insights for our clients. Our just-introduced Live, Work, Play (LWP) Index is an example of a big data exercise in CRE.
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  • What do advances in automation promise for office demand?

    Jan 19, 2017, 08:34 AM by Tim Savage
    Automation is suddenly making headlines in business and finance news reporting. In a recent ViewPoint, I address the broad issue of automation permanently displacing certain types of workers, and what implications that might hold for CRE.
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  • We've already had this debate

    Jan 10, 2017, 10:04 AM by Tim Savage
    Since the global financial crisis, we have seen numerous studies of fiscal policy, and of the so-called fiscal multiplier, which measures the response of economic variables to a one-time increase in government spending. Since the November election, there has been much talk about such spending—specifically, on infrastructure. Given recent research, however, this infrastructure spending may not be particularly stimulative.
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