CBRE EA BLOG Deconstructing CRE

  • Industrial automation may reduce net demand for industrial space

    May 18, 2018, 14:24 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Voices everywhere are suggesting that automation is about to radically change how the service sector works and generates demand for space. With U.S. manufacturing having been automating its processes for decades, we have just completed a study of how robots and automation have impacted U.S. industrial space markets since 1990.
  • Forecasting: An Ongoing Discussion

    May 10, 2018, 10:23 AM by Tim Savage
    Our continuing discussion regarding the informed judgment and science of forecasting.
  • April Jobs Report: Unemployment Lowest Since 2000; Slow Wage Inflation Cools Bond Market

    May 4, 2018, 12:55 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Monthly jobs reports continue to offer a mixed picture of the economy. April's job gains were lower than expected, while unemployment fell due to 236,000 leaving the workforce. Wage growth continued to puzzle, slowing despite the shrinking labor pool. Although low jobs numbers and slower wage growth might suggest slowing economic growth, lower employment gains might indicate that the labor market is reaching its limit, making an acceleration in wages imminent. The underemployment rate will be a key metric in the coming months; the still-high rate is often seen as a sign that the labor market has yet to reach capacity, explaining why wages haven’t increased significantly.
  • Presentation Slides: The Wall of Capital, and Emerging Tech Cities

    May 3, 2018, 11:54 AM by Tim Savage
    It was a pleasure to present at the recent CBRE 2018 Multifamily Conference in Chicago. Presentation materials are available here.

    Richard discussed global capital flows and the important drivers of the "wall of capital" targeting U.S. CRE. He notes that many of these drivers will likely remain strong for a decade.

    I addressed emerging tech cities, employing EA's proprietary LWP index and transactions database.
  • Q1 GDP stronger than anticipated

    Apr 27, 2018, 14:29 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in Q1—slower than Q4's 2.9% but quicker than the 2.1% consensus estimate. The better-than-expected performance came even though the economy was rattled by volatile stock markets and the announcement of potential tariffs on certain imports. Growth slower than the previous three quarters was due to weaker contributions from personal consumption expenditure, non-residential fixed investment, exports and government spending. Despite a buildup in inventories, slightly slower import growth subtracted a little from overall GDP growth.
  • A change to EA's Apartment methodology

    Apr 27, 2018, 12:57 PM by Matthew Vance
    The apartment data we published today features revised historical time series, prompted by growth in the dataset. As our providers continue to expand their metro sample sizes and their overall geographic coverage, we have enhanced our aggregation methodology to give us greater flexibility in incorporating the new data.
  • U.S. hotels' operating efficiency at its highest since 1960

    Apr 25, 2018, 21:47 PM by Jamie Lane
    CBRE Hotels' Americas Research annually surveys thousands of hotels' operating statements for our annual Trends® in the Hotel Industry report. In advance of the 2018 edition's early summer publication, we would like to share with EA clients the data tables from the report, along with some observations.
  • Multifamily to get big boost from new tax plan

    Apr 25, 2018, 15:36 PM by Tim Savage
    The tax benefits of renting a home vs. buying will increase in 29 of the 35 largest U.S. markets—up from 15 markets before tax reform. Limitations on state and local tax deductions and the loss of the mortgage interest deduction on home purchases above $750,000 will marginally impact housing costs in high-cost markets, but will have negligible impact on population flows. The overall economic impact should be positive, but it's uncertain for how long, given the reform's late-cycle timing and the question of whether corporate tax savings will be sufficiently reinvested to cause job growth.
  • Presentation Slides: Will this be the longest real estate boom ever?

    Apr 20, 2018, 13:34 PM by Tim Savage
    Richard Barkham, EA’s Chairman and CBRE Global Chief Economist, recently addressed the National Association for Business Economists regarding the economic cycle and its current implications for commercial real estate. As EA has consistently been at the frontier of thought leadership for commercial real estate, we thought we would share his slides and his thoughts to the broader community.
  • Is a Fiscal-Monetary “Collision” Imminent?

    Apr 6, 2018, 15:52 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    A poorly timed fiscal stimulus—in the face of tighter monetary policy and an economy that has reached or is near its potential—could leave the economy weaker in the years to come.
  • March Jobs Report: Employment Growth Slows; Wage Growth Rises

    Apr 6, 2018, 14:30 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Monthly job growth has averaged a relatively strong 202,000 for the past three months, but remains volatile, as do revisions. Average hourly earnings rose slightly in March. Wages have risen by 2.7% this year. In these results, there is no reason to think the Fed might change course in its normalization of monetary policy. Markets have already priced in two additional rate increases this year. The Fed could consider a third increase if wage growth remains above 2.5%, given uneven productivity growth.
  • Apartment supply: What a market needs

    Mar 30, 2018, 13:27 PM by Matthew Vance
    Although many U.S. apartment markets and submarkets are seeing elevated supply trends soften their fundamentals, in some cases this is needed supply and these are the natural “growing pains” of densifying, maturing cities.
  • Could blockchain benefit CRE?

    Mar 30, 2018, 09:43 AM by Wei Luo
    Blockchain has great potential to improve transaction efficiency in commercial real estate by easing due diligence and administrative requirements. Blockchain requires a large and functional ecosystem of participants, however, which has yet to form in the CRE space.
  • The potential impact of rising steel prices on commercial real estate

    Mar 22, 2018, 15:02 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    President Trump’s recent executive order imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (25% and 10%, respectively) could increase the cost of commercial real estate construction. Costs will vary by asset type, local market conditions and materials used, but high-rise office and industrial building construction costs could rise modestly. While commodity prices have fluctuated in recent years, the primary driver of higher construction costs has been a scarcity of skilled labor, particularly in metro areas with the most development activity.
  • If Clicks Were Bricks: Assessing the threat to malls from online shopping

    Mar 16, 2018, 15:14 PM by Richard Barkham
    The mall is one of the most successful business models of all time, so its recent loss of traction in the marketplace has caused concern in the U.S. retail property sector. There has been a tendency to attribute the lack of growth to online sales and concomitant growth in the logistics sector, but is e-commerce really the juggernaut of popular perception?
  • February Jobs Report: Employment growth surprises to the upside, wage growth does not

    Mar 9, 2018, 13:52 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Employment gains continued to surprise to the upside in February. Meanwhile, wage growth slowed slightly—after the strong January increase that led investors to believe higher wage growth might be imminent. February’s report may quell some of that concern. Hiring increases were broad-based and robust in the construction, retail trade, manufacturing, professional & business services, financial activities, health care and mining sectors.
  • Market Affordability: Looking ahead

    Feb 23, 2018, 15:29 PM by Matthew Vance
    I recently moved from Boston to Denver and the difference in cost of living served as a welcome income multiplier. I'm not alone in that experience: strong push and pull factors are underpinning U.S. demographic and migration trends (and the local economic strength of markets like Denver, Austin, Nashville, Phoenix and more).

    So what lies ahead for affordability?
  • The Global Economy, Global Challenges and U.S. Real Estate

    Feb 23, 2018, 14:33 PM by Tim Savage
    It was a pleasure to present to CBRE colleagues and clients at the Union Club League of Chicago yesterday. My discussion addressed the current global economy's near-term implications for U.S. CRE. For those interested, the slides are here.
  • January Jobs Report: Strong hiring leads to greater wage growth

    Feb 2, 2018, 11:50 AM by Nikhil Mohan
    The economy started off 2018 on a strong note, with employment gains surprising on the upside. Job growth has slowed in the past two years but remains solid. A tighter labor market may finally be translating into greater pay increases for workers—wages saw their largest increase since 2009 in January. Hiring was broad-based and robust in the construction, manufacturing, food services and health care sectors, with employment continuing to trend upward.
  • The Tax Reform Act: The impact of the SALT deduction on real estate

    Feb 2, 2018, 00:31 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Eliminating the SALT deduction will ultimately reduce aggregate spending on public education, infrastructure, public safety and other locally and state-funded services. Many in Congress believe improving such services is necessary to make the U.S. more productive and competitive and to grow its economy. Ironically, eliminating SALT could have the opposite effect.
  • U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and beyond

    Feb 1, 2018, 13:45 PM by Richard Barkham
    Our near-term expectations.
  • Are we looking at tighter money in Asia in 2018?

    Jan 31, 2018, 15:12 PM by Richard Barkham
    One piece of economic news went relatively unnoticed in the lead-up to the Fed’s December rate-hike decision: South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea—often considered a bellwether of interest rates in Asia—had already raised its benchmark rate at the end of November.
  • GDP rises 2.6% in Q4; trade & inventory weigh down growth

    Jan 26, 2018, 13:15 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in Q4—slower than both the 3.2% registered in Q3 and the 3.0% consensus estimate. The weaker-than-expected growth reflected some drag from net exports and inventories, which somewhat offset the quarter's strong consumer spending. Government spending rose 3%, amid post-hurricane rebuilding efforts. For the year, GDP grew by 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016.
  • The Tax Reform Act: Mortgage interest and housing capital gains

    Jan 26, 2018, 12:56 PM by Bill Wheaton
    The new tax reform act lowers the cap on the mortgage interest deduction and extends the holding period for capital gains inclusion. While the latter is probably good, the former will do little for homeownership.
  • The Tax Reform Act: The expensing of investment

    Jan 19, 2018, 16:31 PM by Bill Wheaton
    The new tax reform act provides for a new and novel way to depreciate new capital investment—plant, equipment and buildings. In theory, the positive impact could be significant. In the current context, however, expensing raises some concerns.
  • Addressing recent discrepancies in the industrial TW Rent Index

    Jan 15, 2018, 14:08 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Our rent index was lower in Q3. Here's why.
  • How much should you care about planned units?

    Jan 8, 2018, 13:22 PM by Maximilian Saia
    In multifamily investment, a market’s supply pipeline is a critical factor in site selection. A looming supply overhang can raise vacancy and slow or invert rent growth, hurting revenue. Units under construction are the primary measure of supply risk, but it’s important to consider the risk posed by planned units as well.
  • December Jobs Report: Employment growth cools as wages rise modestly

    Jan 5, 2018, 15:06 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    December saw 148,000 jobs added—less than the consensus expectation for 190,000. Hiring was broad-based, although retail jobs decreased by 20,300 despite reports of a strong holiday shopping season.
  • Forecasting

    Jan 3, 2018, 17:39 PM by Tim Savage
    To paraphrase George Box, all forecasts are wrong, but some forecasts are useful.
  • Talking data science with EA's Tim Savage

    Dec 27, 2017, 13:08 PM by Mary Suter
    EA's principal data scientist discusses work at EA and research he recently presented at NABE's Tec2017 conference.
  • The Shopping Journey of the Future

    Dec 27, 2017, 09:34 AM by Wei Luo
    From a consumer perspective, it will be spectacular. From a retailer perspective, there will be winners and losers, as always.
  • December rate rise: Fed raises rates as expected; three more hikes likely in 2018

    Dec 14, 2017, 13:42 PM by Jeff Havsy
    The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate 25 bps, to a target range of 1.25% to 1.50%. This was the Fed’s fourth 25-bps increase since December 2016 and was widely anticipated given the economy’s recent near-3% quarterly growth, robust job growth, record-low unemployment, modest wage gains and rising consumer and producer prices.
  • We expect industrial net absorption to drop from 190 MSF in 2017 to 75 MSF in 2019. Why?

    Dec 1, 2017, 12:24 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Lower employment growth—we expect 0.88% in 2018 and -0.33% in 2019—will have negative implications for availability and rents as well.
  • Data science has always been in the economist’s toolkit

    Nov 9, 2017, 15:44 PM by Maximilian Saia
    First with regression analysis and then econometrics—an indispensable and sizeable part of the machine-learning universe—the original data scientists, economists, have been at the table for decades.
  • Jobs bounce back as hurricane impact fades

    Nov 3, 2017, 12:20 PM by Jeff Havsy
    October saw 261,000 jobs added, and September's decline has been revised to an 18,000-job gain, re-establishing the longest streak of monthly job gains since the series was begun in 1939. Although October's gain came in below consensus, the solid growth and upward revisions show the hurricanes' impact on employment to have been less severe than was thought in September.
  • Three-year outlook: Capital appreciation in U.S. CRE assets unlikely; investors should focus on income

    Nov 2, 2017, 14:07 PM by Serguei Chervachidze
    Across the range of likely macroeconomic scenarios, appreciation returns—the mainstay of CRE returns over the past five years—are on hold for the next three years.
  • Notes on China’s 19th National Congress, for American CRE

    Oct 30, 2017, 16:08 PM by Wei Luo
    China’s 19th National Congress was held in Beijing earlier this month. The meeting convenes every five years and sets the tone for Chinese economic and monetary policy for years to come. ​Here's what American CRE should know about this year's Congress.
  • GDP rises 3% despite hurricanes

    Oct 27, 2017, 14:36 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q3 2017, surpassing the 2.5% consensus estimate. This was the best third quarter since Q3 2014—when growth was 5.2%—and it was only the third time that growth has reached 3% or higher in the past 12 quarters.
  • CBRE Econometric Advisors and modern parlance: "Machine learning"

    Oct 26, 2017, 15:29 PM by Tim Savage
    CBRE Econometric Advisors has been doing machine learning and data science for decades.
  • Check-in: Notes on current issues in the hotel industry

    Oct 20, 2017, 15:08 PM by Jack Corgel
    At CBRE Research’s annual conference last month, I joined Mark Carrier from BF Saul Hospitality group and Kate Henriksen from RLJ Lodging Trust to discuss the current cycle, peaking supply, the sharing economy, and more.
  • The homeownership rate vs. U.S. apartment performance

    Oct 19, 2017, 16:03 PM by Matthew Vance
    Which markets are more likely to experience change in homeownership, and why? How will multifamily performance respond?
  • Spencer Levy on Autonomous Driving

    Oct 16, 2017, 11:38 AM by Tim Savage
    For CRE, autonomous driving will amount to a major disruptive force. In a recent podcast, CBRE's Spencer Levy and Jeremy Neuer cover some of its less-discussed implications, including greater senior citizen mobility, job loss in car-adjacent industries, and the adaptive re-use of office spaces that include parking structures.
  • How much do U.S. hotels depend on international guest stays?

    Oct 10, 2017, 10:52 AM by Jack Corgel
    International occupancy is an important component of U.S. hotel demand, but exactly how important has not been well-established by data from trusted industry sources. Here, we used U.S. government statistics, city travel and tourism reports, and a set of assumptions to estimate international guest stays' demand contribution, for selected large cities and the nation. We found that international visitors consume a greater share of hotel room nights than you might expect.
  • Hurricanes contribute to decline in September employment

    Oct 6, 2017, 14:41 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employment fell by 33,000 jobs in September—the first monthly loss since September 2010—ending the longest streak of monthly job gains on record. The loss was partially attributed to last month's two major hurricanes. With downward revisions to July and August, the rolling three-month average is now 91,000 jobs, down from 185,000 last month. On a positive note, wage growth improved significantly, unemployment fell from 4.4% to 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate rose from 62.9% to 63.1%.
  • Big data and CRE: The value of proprietary data

    Oct 3, 2017, 12:41 PM by Tim Savage
    CRE's big data will be many, many attributes observed for a limited number of properties.
  • The rise of non-traditional rent concessions and their impact on returns

    Sep 27, 2017, 12:51 PM by Matthew Vance
    It’s no surprise that concessions are on the rise in many multifamily markets, and operators and developers are increasingly turning to non-traditional concessions. Here we show how such concessions can have a material impact on returns.
  • The U.S. political outlook and what it means for real estate

    Sep 26, 2017, 09:50 AM by Jeff Havsy
    At our conference this month in D.C., Ken Simonson of AGC and Jamie Woodwell from MBA shared their distinct perspectives on which policy issues were potentially most consequential for real estate. Tax reform and immigration were discussed in depth.
  • September rate unchanged: The beginning of quantitative tightening? Not quite

    Sep 22, 2017, 13:59 PM by Jeff Havsy
    At its latest meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 1.0%-1.25%. An increase is expected in December, with economic conditions generally good. Commercial real estate fundamentals remain strong, and a Q4 rebound in economic growth should keep them healthy at least through H1 2018.
  • August jobs report falls short of expectations

    Sep 1, 2017, 13:18 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 156,000 jobs in August, which was below the consensus forecast for 180,000. Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 185,000—10,000 fewer than last month’s rolling average. This is a healthy pace and the economy remains in good shape, but job growth is starting to slow slightly: 2017 has averaged 176,000 new jobs monthly, down from 2016's 187,000. Surprisingly, wage growth has not accelerated, despite the tight labor market. August's 2.5% wage growth maintained the pace we've seen for most of the past year.
  • Construction costs: It's the materials

    Sep 1, 2017, 12:45 PM by Tim Savage
    Does labor's relatively small share of construction costs limit the potential of labor-saving tech innovation in the industry? Meanwhile, what drives the cost of concrete?
  • A somber reminder

    Aug 9, 2017, 14:16 PM by Tim Savage
    It's been 10 years since the GFC began. Two economists review the somber history since then.
  • July jobs report beats expectations

    Aug 4, 2017, 13:24 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in July, which was above the consensus forecast of 180,000 jobs. Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 195,000. This is a healthy pace and the economy remains in good shape, but job growth may be slowing slightly: 2017 has averaged 184,000 new jobs monthly, down from 2016's 187,000. Surprisingly, wage growth has not accelerated, despite the tight labor market. July's 2.5% wage growth maintained the pace we've seen for most of the past year.
  • GDP growth accelerates in Q2

    Jul 28, 2017, 12:47 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2017 grew by 2.6% at an annualized rate, in line with consensus expectations. This was the best quarter since Q3 2016 when growth was 2.8%. By comparison, growth in the second quarter last year was 2.2% and in Q2 2015 was 2.7%.
  • A Tale of Four Markets: The causes of changing rent growth

    Jul 27, 2017, 09:50 AM by Maximilian Saia
    With Q2 2017 data finally in, we can take a fresh look at how rent dynamics have changed so far in 2017, and note some patterns in our forecasts.
  • Has real estate been a good hedge against inflation? Will it be in the future?

    Jul 21, 2017, 13:06 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Real estate cap rates' decline alongside government interest rates over the past 30 years has buoyed returns, with property values at pace with inflation but property net income falling behind. If cap rates begin to rise, appreciation could vanish.
  • Last-Mile Logistics

    Jul 13, 2017, 14:15 PM by Tim Savage
    A clean but powerful visualization exploring the geography of last-mile logistics.
  • June jobs report beats expectations

    Jul 7, 2017, 14:28 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 222,000 jobs in June, which was above the consensus forecast of 170,000 jobs. Monthly job gains have averaged 194,000 over the past three months. The current unemployment rate is low, but there is no clear trend in overall job generation. Certain sectors, such as health care, continue to see growth. Other sectors, such as construction, manufacturing and transportation, remain flat.
  • How much do transit access, proximity to downtown, and retail density influence multifamily rents?

    Jul 7, 2017, 14:15 PM by Matthew Vance
    Observing that apartment assets near light rail stations achieve higher rents and revenue than others, we looked into whether that proximity confers the advantage, and whether other factors play a part.
  • Supply is (still) coming. Where it’s concentrated matters.

    Jun 23, 2017, 14:47 PM by Maximilian Saia
    On the strength of the current and future apartment construction pipeline, headlines and commentary are all over the place: It's common to see "boom," "explosion" and "surge" characterizing the current environment, even as reports assert that not enough housing is being built and that much more multifamily housing will be needed to keep up with demand. Which narrative is correct?
  • Why is U.S. food consumption resisting the internet?

    Jun 21, 2017, 15:02 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Online ordering of groceries is thriving and growing across the EU, but if “clicks” are to ever penetrate “bricks” in U.S. food consumption, a hybrid model may be necessary.
  • June rate rise: Another 25-bps increase by the Fed

    Jun 14, 2017, 16:28 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Since the Fed resumed its (so far, incremental) increases in December, long-term rates have remained stable, keeping cap rate increases limited. CRE fundamentals remain strong, so improved economic growth should lead to an extended cycle.
  • Just how high might long-term interest rates actually go?

    Jun 7, 2017, 13:49 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Some thoughts on the factors that historically have governed the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates—and a new one.
  • Globally, corporate real estate is “future-proofing” to manage risk

    Jun 6, 2017, 10:59 AM by Julie Whelan
    CBRE recently released the fourth installment in its reporting on corporate real estate (CRE) executives’ priorities, strategies and outlook. Conscious of the risk that continuing change in the economy, labor markets and technology and poses, CRE decision-makers are “future proofing” by improving user experiences and prioritizing agility in their space use.
  • Three years after legalization: Marijuana real estate in Denver

    Jun 5, 2017, 13:34 PM by Matthew Vance
    With a number of states and localities having legalized (or taken steps toward legalizing) recreational marijuana in the past few years, some are looking to Denver to gauge how the industry might affect their local industrial fundamentals. In a new report, we offer a roadmap to identifying opportunity in the market, based on observations of industry dynamics in Denver.
  • A disappointing May jobs report

    Jun 2, 2017, 14:16 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 138,000 jobs in May—well below the consensus forecast of 185,000 jobs. March and April figures were revised downward by 66,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%—its lowest level since 2001—but the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.7%.
  • Welcoming EA's new Chairman, Dr. Richard Barkham

    Jun 1, 2017, 12:57 PM by Jeff Havsy
    We are pleased to welcome Dr. Richard Barkham, CBRE’s Global Chief Economist, to Boston as he takes on an additional role as EA’s new Chairman. From his London office and in his travels throughout the world, Richard has been frequently immersed in the global trends that are transforming the dynamics of local real estate markets. Richard’s perspective and presence will serve EA and its clients well, as we continue to build our platform and to integrate EA’s data science expertise with the global work of CBRE Research.
  • Apartments: Are development trends hurting the new and the high-end?

    May 24, 2017, 23:46 PM by Matthew Vance
    In many markets with mature development pipelines, newer assets' effective rent growth is decelerating significantly.
  • The Fed goes open-source

    May 9, 2017, 08:34 AM by Tim Savage
    DSGE, using Julia.
  • April jobs growth beats forecast

    May 5, 2017, 13:36 PM by Jeff Havsy
    After a lull in March, employment growth rebounded in April. The rolling three-month average was virtually unchanged at 174,000 jobs per month and the average for the past 12 months is 186,000—so employers have not materially changed their hiring patterns. Notwithstanding the change in business and consumer sentiment since Donald Trump’s election, economic data in 2017 remain very similar to those at the end of the Obama administration.
  • A familiar slow start for GDP growth

    Apr 28, 2017, 15:46 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Q1 GDP growth was the slowest in three years. How concerned should we be?
  • Some interesting CRE stats for Q1 2017

    Apr 26, 2017, 14:54 PM by Jeff Havsy
  • Millennials aren't the only ones dragging down homeownership

    Apr 17, 2017, 14:23 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    CBRE EA is engaged in exploring the implications of a turn in home purchase attitudes among millennials.
  • New supply gives the office market its first vacancy increase in seven years

    Apr 13, 2017, 10:57 AM by Alex Krasikov
    Completions were up by 7% in Q1 2017, dramatically breaking from a four-year trend.
  • A classification of macroeconomics tools

    Apr 12, 2017, 09:47 AM by Tim Savage
    Olivier Blanchard, Professor Emeritus of MIT's economics department, makes a very important point: different tasks require different types of tools.
  • Autonomous driving: What it means for CRE

    Apr 11, 2017, 10:59 AM by Bill Wheaton
    It's on suburban highways and roads that the promised benefits of automated driving have the greatest potential.
  • March jobs report: Back to reality

    Apr 7, 2017, 13:16 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 98,000 jobs in March—well short of the consensus expectation for 180,000. Seasonal weather factors are partially to blame: Mild winter weather in January and February boosted job growth well above 200,000, and late-season snowstorms contributed to the poor number in March. All told, it was a solid first quarter...
  • A more accurate historical measure of real estate stock

    Apr 6, 2017, 10:06 AM by Jing Ren
    In maintaining a historical time series of real estate stock, the industry standard approach is to calculate past quarters' stock levels by subtracting buildings from the current level according to their ages. This method doesn't account for buildings that were demolished, however, so the standard measure of historical stock is, by definition, an underestimation. To see if we can address this, we are developing a “gross” stock series that adds back...
  • Fed Watch: Indecision by committee

    Mar 31, 2017, 12:18 PM by James Bohnaker
    Most FOMC members agree that rates will need to head higher in the next few years, but how quickly is a source of great debate. Don't be surprised to see even greater indecision as uncertainty rises later in the cycle.
  • Economic uncertainty a growing concern for corporate real estate in the Americas

    Mar 29, 2017, 13:41 PM by Julie Whelan
    CBRE's recent survey shows economic uncertainty looming larger among CRE executives' concerns, second only to talent management. Half ranked economic uncertainty a top-three concern, up from last year's one third.
  • "Curve Benders," a presentation by Spencer Levy, Head of Research, Americas

    Mar 23, 2017, 15:07 PM by Tim Savage
    Spencer Levy recently presented at the CBRE 2017 Investor Symposium. Here is a link to a recording of his presentation.
  • February retail sales disappoint; economic and immigration policy are risks

    Mar 16, 2017, 11:42 AM by Jing Ren
    With weakness in most segments, February retail sales disappointed. Delayed tax refunds and immigration policy may have contributed to the weak retail sales—the latter a particular source of concern for retailers in markets with large immigrant populations. Policy on immigration and the economy may represent the greatest risk to retail markets over the coming quarters.
  • What it means for real estate: The solar-EV revolution

    Mar 16, 2017, 07:40 AM by Bill Wheaton
    The prospect for suburban living has just gotten a lot brighter. Suburban houses will not only be able to generate the energy they need internally, but also fuel their cars—and all with absolutely no CO2 emissions.
  • March rate rise: Fed looks to get ahead of inflation

    Mar 15, 2017, 15:05 PM by James Bohnaker
    Upward pressure on cap rates is expected, muted by strong capital flows from foreign and domestic institutional investors. CRE fundamentals remain strong overall, and improved business and consumer confidence may lead to enhanced late-cycle tenant demand.
  • Big data and CRE

    Mar 14, 2017, 12:08 PM by Tim Savage
    CBRE has a lot of proprietary data sitting in data "puddles." Big data is creating a data "lake" from those puddles by linking data feeds, and then using the power of machine learning to derive insights for our clients. Our just-introduced Live, Work, Play (LWP) Index is an example of a big data exercise in CRE.
  • Employment Situation: Feb 2017

    Mar 10, 2017, 14:36 PM by Jeff Havsy
    February’s jobs report was strong, with excellent headline numbers, good wage growth and rising labor force participation. Nothing in this report should give the Fed pause about raising rates next week.
  • Higher interest rates a risk for CRE values, recession or not

    Mar 8, 2017, 11:51 AM by Serguei Chervachidze
    With the new administration at the reins and macroeconomic indicators sending mixed signals, investors are wondering what the future promises for the direction of the U.S. economy commercial real estate. This seems to be certain in investors’ minds: interest rates are likely to increase—at least in the medium term, if not in the long run. What would such increases imply for CRE, and particularly for CRE values?
  • How does the economic cycle influence the length of office leases?

    Feb 27, 2017, 16:18 PM by Alex Krasikov
    With some recent interest in whether the economic cycle affects the length of office leases, we decided to look at quarterly U.S. office-leasing data for the past 35 years...
  • It's not a recession you should be thinking about... It's three recessions

    Feb 16, 2017, 22:08 PM by Jing Ren
    Every economic recession has its unique origins, but it can also usually be characterized by the macroeconomic scenario that sparked it. The three scenarios that typically cause recessions have unique impacts on individual markets and property types and are the key to understanding how your portfolio will weather recessions to come.
  • Apartment rents: Unpacking the statistics

    Feb 9, 2017, 08:22 AM by Matthew Vance
    New York City drives a lot of trends, including our calculation of rent growth for the Sum of Markets. Year-over-year effective rent growth was 0.2% in Q4; though it's meant to represent the national trend, for most of us, that figure doesn’t exactly fit our experience. So, how did we arrive at 0.2%?
  • Employment Situation: January 2017

    Feb 3, 2017, 12:10 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Our outlook is unchanged after a good, but not great, report to kick off 2017.
  • Forecaster Beware: Don’t jump the gun on Trump stimulus

    Feb 1, 2017, 15:22 PM by James Bohnaker
    An update on EA's U.S. macroeconomic outlook: Even if Trump is able to enact his economic policies as planned, the stimulus will be slugging against a mature economy. Higher interest rates, the strong dollar, and a tight labor market are enough reason to believe that the natural business cycle is on the downslope. Moreover, there is plenty of evidence that fiscal policy is less effective when the economy is at full capacity, so that will work against any stimulus as well...
  • Fed Watch: Going with the flow

    Feb 1, 2017, 13:53 PM by James Bohnaker
    There's no reason for the Fed to be vocal at this point, and 2017's first FOMC meeting saw no policy changes made. The Fed is keenly aware of the heightened degree of fiscal uncertainty and clearly has not bought into the notion—already accepted by many economic forecasters—that fiscal stimulus will launch the economy into higher gear. EA's baseline outlook remains tempered as well, at least until we see where the new administration is heading.
  • Interest rates and cap rates: A tale of two scenarios

    Jan 31, 2017, 14:47 PM by Serguei Chervachidze
    How will rising U.S. interest rates affect cap rates? It depends.
  • Q4 2016 GDP

    Jan 27, 2017, 12:59 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Our views on the Q4 2016 GDP announcement. Steady as she goes.
  • Live-Work-Play: A better way to classify location

    Jan 26, 2017, 12:36 PM by James Bohnaker
    Location, Location, Location—it’s been the mantra of real estate since the phrase first appeared in a Chicago Tribune property ad in 1926. CBRE Econometric Advisors is currently developing a Live-Work-Play Index that classifies locations based on objective analysis rather than subjective bias.
  • Unpacking recent U.S. population growth

    Jan 24, 2017, 09:46 AM by James Bohnaker
    What were the trends in U.S. population growth and migration in 2016 and why do they matter to CRE?
  • What do advances in automation promise for office demand?

    Jan 19, 2017, 08:34 AM by Tim Savage
    Automation is suddenly making headlines in business and finance news reporting. In a recent ViewPoint, I address the broad issue of automation permanently displacing certain types of workers, and what implications that might hold for CRE.
  • How resilient are U.S. office markets to a recession?

    Jan 18, 2017, 09:24 AM by Serguei Chervachidze
    Whether it’s a year or eight years away, investors are wondering what the next recession will mean for CRE performance: Will certain markets or asset types be more immune to its negative effects than others? How will markets differ in their speed to recovery? In a recent study, we examined the effects of a major 2008-type recession on rents and vacancy in the 10 largest U.S. office markets, finding major response differences.
  • What trade barriers might mean for U.S. warehouse demand

    Jan 12, 2017, 10:04 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Changes proposed by the coming administration could have a substantial effect on warehouse demand trends. Recently at EA we crunched the numbers and came up with some results...
  • We've already had this debate

    Jan 10, 2017, 10:04 AM by Tim Savage
    Since the global financial crisis, we have seen numerous studies of fiscal policy, and of the so-called fiscal multiplier, which measures the response of economic variables to a one-time increase in government spending. Since the November election, there has been much talk about such spending—specifically, on infrastructure. Given recent research, however, this infrastructure spending may not be particularly stimulative.
  • Employment Situation, December 2016

    Jan 6, 2017, 13:54 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Today's December employment report had a relatively low headline number, but also a lot of positive data behind it. Revisions to October and November jobs numbers showed a net gain of 19,000 jobs, though the three-month rolling average fell to 165,000, a drop of 11,000 from last month.
  • Welcome!

    Dec 29, 2016, 16:03 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Welcome to your new CBRE EA web portal, created to improve your experience in accessing CBRE EA’s data warehouse, tools and analysis. It features streamlined navigation, an improved design, and this new blog, Deconstructing CRE, which will be a source of ongoing discussion and thought leadership regarding topics relevant to the CRE community. As the portal will continue to evolve, we look forward to and appreciate your feedback.
  • Retailers thankful for a confident U.S. consumer

    Dec 26, 2016, 14:37 PM by James Bohnaker
    Concern about a slowdown in consumer spending can go on the back burner, thanks to recently revised data from the BEA. The latest release shows significantly better Q3 personal consumption growth (2.8%) that was initially estimated (2.1%).
  • Employment Situation, November 2016

    Dec 2, 2016, 11:32 AM by Jeff Havsy
    November's unemployment report was solid, but not spectacular. The economy added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, a nine-year low.
redirect pin user minus plus fax mobile-phone office-phone data envelope globe outlook retail close line-arrow-down solid-triangle-down facebook globe2 google hamburger line-arrow-left solid-triangle-left linkedin play-btn line-arrow-right solid-triangle-right search twitter line-arrow-up solid-triangle-up calendar globe-americas globe-apac globe-emea external-link music picture paper pictures play gallery download rss-feed vcard