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The year 2026 began with high hopes for commercial real estate capital markets. At the close of 2025, respondents to the H2 2025 Cap Rate Survey, a bi-annual poll of CBRE Capital Markets and Valuations professionals, overwhelmingly expected yields to either hold steady or decline over the next six months. But what a difference a credit issuance boom and heightened inflation make. In the most recent survey, there is much more diversity of opinion about the future trajectory of cap rates.

In the H1 2026 survey, roughly 60% of respondents expect to see “No Change” in cap rates over the next six months, but there was an uptick in the number of respondents who expect them to rise. This view was particularly notable in the multifamily space, likely reflecting softer rent growth expectations and higher interest rates. Across property types, more investors expect higher cap rates for Class C assets, likely reflecting higher capex requirements and greater lease-up risk.