Deconstructing CRE

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Deconstructing CRE

  • December jobs report: Strong jobs growth counters market volatility

    Jan 4, 2019, 15:40 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December—well above the consensus estimate of 176,000. Unemployment ticked up to 3.9%, while labor force participation increased by slightly to 63.1%. Positive but moderating jobs growth is expected in H1 2019...
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  • What kind of construction delays might we see in Q4 2018?

    Dec 4, 2018, 14:19 PM by Nathan Adkins
    Recent construction data suggest that multifamily supply growth will peak in Q4 2018 and correct to near the 10-year average by 2020. If you’ve been reading EA’s Q3 2018 Apartment Overview and Outlook, you may be saying, “don’t completions routinely come in at 15-25% under the construction projections?” What kind of construction delays might we see in Q4 2018?
    Full story
  • Why firms choose “edge cities”: Arlington and Queens

    Nov 21, 2018, 11:34 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Locating up to 25,000 new employees in Arlington and Queens will certainly have its effects on local real estate. But while local rents and commercial values will definitely rise, the broadest impacts will occur in a number of residential areas radiating out from these two sites. Living out on Long Island or beyond the beltway running SW of D.C. just became a whole lot more attractive...
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  • October jobs report: Strong report; higher wages are here

    Nov 4, 2018, 20:30 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October—well above the consensus estimate of 200,000. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%—the lowest since 1969—while labor force participation increased by 20 basis points (bps) to 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents in October and are up by 3.1% over the year. Despite recent stock market volatility and potential employment impacts from Hurricane Florence, the October jobs report showed solid gains across all sectors of the economy, and wage growth for the year is at post-financial crisis highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly 60 basis points (bps) for the year. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate—a measure of markets’ expectations for inflation 10 years from now—has remained consistently above 2%, the Federal Reserve’s stated goal for inflation...
    Full story

Featured Articles

U.S. Macro Outlook and Forecast Scenarios, Q3 2017

Nov 14, 2017, 11:18 AM by Jeffrey Havsy
U.S. GDP growth surprised to the upside in Q3 2017, despite disruption and damage from a string of hurricanes. Although we've now seen growth of at least 3% for a couple quarters, the economy generally hasn't sustained such momentum. We expect 2017 to deliver the familiar dose of 2% growth with an average monthly job gain just above 160,000. Calm, steady growth is just what the economy needs at present. However, with a tight labor market and the Fed normalizing monetary policy, we expect wage pressure, tighter credit conditions and a general lack of political and fiscal clarity to prompt a mild, short recession in early 2019.


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