Deconstructing CRE

September jobs report: Hiring and wages cool; unemployment at 49-year low

by Richard Barkham | Oct 5, 2018

134,000 jobs were added in September—far fewer than the 185,000 expected. Hurricane Florence contributed, but hiring remains likely to slow somewhat in the quarters to come.

Extended cycle? Extended slow growth

by Wei Luo and Alex Krasikov | Aug 15, 2018

Why hasn’t rental growth climbed higher during this economic expansion?

Q2 GDP Growth Strongest Since 2014

by Tim Savage | Jul 27, 2018

GDP growth in Q2 was a strong 4.1%, driven by broad gains in consumption, exports, investment and government spending.

Trade disputes so far having little impact on CRE

by Nikhil Mohan and Tim Savage | Jul 18, 2018

The U.S. and China recently placed import tariffs on $34 bn of each other’s products. The U.S. has also threatened tariffs on imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico. Should the trade disputes escalate, industrial space demand will likely decline.

Asian investors are getting less bang for their buck in the U.S.

by Richard Barkham and Taylor Jacoby | Jun 25, 2018

Rising U.S. interest rates and an uncertain outlook for the dollar have driven up hedging costs for Asian investors over the past year. This is beginning to impact U.S. CRE, with Asian investment volume down 62% year-over-year in Q1…

Rising trucking costs could mark a tipping point for U.S. consumer prices

by Nikhil Mohan | Jun 21, 2018

A significant (and worsening) shortage of truck drivers is raising shipping costs, which may spark the expected inflationary pressures that have thus far remained absent…

Presentation Slides: Machine Learning and Finance

by Tim Savage | Jun 15, 2018

And now for something completely different…

Trade Wars: which real estate properties lose the most? ​

by Bill Wheaton | May 25, 2018

The recent U.S.-China rhetoric may turn out to be just that, but we should consider what such a war might do to commercial real estate.

Industrial automation may reduce net demand for industrial space

by Bill Wheaton | May 18, 2018

Will automation radically change the service sector's demand for space? U.S. manufacturing has been automating for decades—here we look at how robots and automation have impacted U.S. industrial space markets since 1990.

Notices

 

Fall Client Forum Presentation Slides

Our 2018 Fall Client Forum was held this week in Boston. Many thanks to those who joined us. Presentation slides are available.

 

Q3 2018 Flash Reports

U.S. Industrial, Retail and Office are available on the dashboard.

 

EA RELEASE CALENDAR

Deconstructing CRE

  • September jobs report: Hiring and wages cool; unemployment at 49-year low

    Oct 5, 2018, 15:36 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 134,000 jobs in September—far fewer than the 185,000 expected. This was the slowest growth in a year. Unemployment declined to 3.7% while labor force participation was unchanged at 62.7%. Revisions raised the new jobs tally for July and August by 87,000. Average hourly earnings were up 2.8% year-over-year, slowing slightly from August.

    Although Hurricane Florence (unsurprisingly) dampened September hiring, hiring activity will likely slow somewhat from its relatively strong run in H1 2018. The Fed's hiking the 10-year this week was largely due to strong hiring activity in the private sector...
  • August jobs report: Job gains & wage growth top expectations

    Sep 7, 2018, 14:11 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    The U.S. economy added 201,000 jobs in August, beating market expectations. Unemployment remained at 3.9%, while labor force participation fell slightly, to 62.7%. Revisions lowered the new jobs tally for June and July by 50,000. Having averaged 207,000 new jobs monthly, this year likely will be the strongest for employment since 2015. Year-over-year wage growth was 2.9%—a sign that wages might finally rise higher after years of sluggish gains. Financial markets' mild reaction today suggests that they will wait to see whether wage growth continues its upward trend in the coming months...
  • Extended cycle? Extended slow growth

    Aug 15, 2018, 12:47 PM by Wei Luo
    Why hasn’t rental growth climbed higher during this economic expansion?
  • July jobs report: Moderate growth shows economy remains on solid footing

    Aug 3, 2018, 14:15 PM by Tim Savage
    U.S. employment rose by 157,000 jobs in July—short of both the consensus expectation for 190,000 and the past year's average monthly gain of 203,000. Excluding losses from the Toys R Us bankruptcy, the figure was very close to target. Unemployment fell slightly to 3.9%, while labor force participation went unchanged at 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents month-over-month, and wages were up 2.7% year-over-year. Substantial revisions to May and June jobs numbers resulted in a net gain of 59,000 jobs. The past year has seen employment grow by nearly 2.4 million jobs...

Featured Articles

U.S. Macro Outlook and Forecast Scenarios, Q3 2017

Nov 14, 2017, 11:18 AM by Jeffrey Havsy
U.S. GDP growth surprised to the upside in Q3 2017, despite disruption and damage from a string of hurricanes. Although we've now seen growth of at least 3% for a couple quarters, the economy generally hasn't sustained such momentum. We expect 2017 to deliver the familiar dose of 2% growth with an average monthly job gain just above 160,000. Calm, steady growth is just what the economy needs at present. However, with a tight labor market and the Fed normalizing monetary policy, we expect wage pressure, tighter credit conditions and a general lack of political and fiscal clarity to prompt a mild, short recession in early 2019.


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