Deconstructing CRE

January Jobs Report: Strong hiring leads to greater wage growth

by Nikhil Mohan | Feb 2, 2018

December saw 200,000 jobs added, beating expectations. Hiring was broad-based and wages saw their greatest increase since 2009.

The Tax Reform Act: The impact of the SALT deduction on real estate

by Bill Wheaton | Feb 1, 2018

Eliminating the SALT deduction increases the cost of local public services, and may lower house prices. It will be felt most strongly in towns with higher homeownership rates, suburbs, and higher-income communities.

U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and beyond

by Richard Barkham | Feb 1, 2018

Our near-term expectations.

Are we looking at tighter money in Asia in 2018?

by Richard Barkham | Jan 31, 2018

The Bank of Korea—often considered a bellwether of interest rates in Asia—raised its benchmark rate at the end of November. Was that the start of a tightening cycle?

GDP rises 2.6% in Q4; trade & inventory weigh down growth

by Nikhil Mohan | Jan 26, 2018

Q4 GDP growth of 2.6% came in under Q3's 3.2% and the 3.0% consensus estimate, reflecting some drag from net exports and inventories, which somewhat offset the quarter's strong consumer spending.

The Tax Reform Act: Mortgage interest and housing capital gains

by Bill Wheaton | Jan 26, 2018

The new tax reform act lowers the cap on the mortgage interest deduction and extends the holding period for capital gains inclusion. While the latter is probably good, the former will do little for homeownership.

The Tax Reform Act: The expensing of investment

by Bill Wheaton | Jan 19, 2018

The new Tax Reform Act provides for a new and novel way to depreciate new capital investment—plant, equipment and buildings. In theory, the positive impact could be significant. In the current context, however, expensing raises some concerns.

Addressing recent discrepancies in the industrial TW Rent Index

by Nikhil Mohan | Jan 15, 2018

Our rent index was lower in Q3. Here's why.

How much should you care about planned units?

by Max Saia | Jan 8, 2018

In multifamily investment, a market’s supply pipeline is a critical factor in site selection. Units under construction is the primary measure of supply risk, but it’s important to consider the risk posed by planned units as well.

Notices

 

Q4 2017 U.S. Macro Outlook and Scenarios

EA's latest forecasts reflect the solid economic performance we expect this year. This and our alternative forecast scenarios are detailed here.

U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and Beyond

The Fed Funds rate, the 10-year, debt pricing and more, this year and next. Read it here.

EA RELEASE CALENDAR

Deconstructing CRE

  • January Jobs Report: Strong hiring leads to greater wage growth

    Feb 2, 2018, 11:50 AM by Nikhil Mohan
    The economy started off 2018 on a strong note, with employment gains surprising on the upside. Job growth has slowed in the past two years but remains solid. A tighter labor market may finally be translating into greater pay increases for workers—wages saw their largest increase since 2009 in January. Hiring was broad-based and robust in the construction, manufacturing, food services and health care sectors, with employment continuing to trend upward.
  • The Tax Reform Act: The impact of the SALT deduction on real estate

    Feb 2, 2018, 00:31 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Eliminating the SALT deduction will ultimately reduce aggregate spending on public education, infrastructure, public safety and other locally and state-funded services. Many in Congress believe improving such services is necessary to make the U.S. more productive and competitive and to grow its economy. Ironically, eliminating SALT could have the opposite effect.
  • U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and beyond

    Feb 1, 2018, 13:45 PM by Richard Barkham
    Our near-term expectations.
  • Are we looking at tighter money in Asia in 2018?

    Jan 31, 2018, 15:12 PM by Richard Barkham
    One piece of economic news went relatively unnoticed in the lead-up to the Fed’s December rate-hike decision: South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea—often considered a bellwether of interest rates in Asia—had already raised its benchmark rate at the end of November.

Featured Articles

U.S. Macro Outlook and Forecast Scenarios, Q3 2017

Nov 14, 2017, 11:18 AM by Jeffrey Havsy
U.S. GDP growth surprised to the upside in Q3 2017, despite disruption and damage from a string of hurricanes. Although we've now seen growth of at least 3% for a couple quarters, the economy generally hasn't sustained such momentum. We expect 2017 to deliver the familiar dose of 2% growth with an average monthly job gain just above 160,000. Calm, steady growth is just what the economy needs at present. However, with a tight labor market and the Fed normalizing monetary policy, we expect wage pressure, tighter credit conditions and a general lack of political and fiscal clarity to prompt a mild, short recession in early 2019.


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