In a time when forecasting has become even more crucial, I am honored to introduce you to two new economists and announce the promotions of several EA team members.

March marked the end of 113 consecutive months of job growth—the longest stretch in U.S. history. The unemployment rate rose nearly a full percentage point to 4.4%.

Strong employment growth occurred despite the late-January emergence of coronavirus in the U.S., which accelerated by late February and caused dramatic stock market volatility.

Just as geopolitical headwinds eased in late January with a phase-one U.S./China trade deal and the U.K. formally leaving the European Union, worries about the Chinese coronavirus outbreak surged and the growing optimism on global growth dampened.

The U.S. added 225,000 jobs in January 2020, far surpassing the expectation of 158,000. November and December employment reports were revised upward by a combined 5,000 jobs, putting the three-month average at 211,000 per month. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.6% due to an increase in the labor force participation rate to 63.4%.

The U.S. economy added 224,000 jobs in June, well up from May's 72,000. Unemployment and labor force participation each ticked up 10 bps—to 3.7% and 62.8%, respectively. The June report marks 104 consecutive months of U.S. job growth—the longest stretch ever.

The U.S. economy added 75,000 jobs in May—far fewer than the expected 175,000. Unemployment was flat at 3.6%, as was labor force participation at 62.8%. The May report marks the longest ever stretch of U.S. job growth: 104 consecutive months.

The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April—far above expectations for 190,000. Unemployment declined 20 bps to 3.6%, while labor force participation declined 20 bps to 62.8%. Average hourly earnings were flat, year over year, at 3.2%.

The U.S. economy added 20,000 jobs in February—far below expectations for 180,000. Unemployment declined 20 bps to 3.8%, while labor force participation remained at 63.2%. Average hourly earnings were up 3.4%, year over year—the strongest growth in 10 years.

The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December—well above the consensus estimate of 176,000. Unemployment ticked up to 3.9%, while labor force participation increased by slightly to 63.1%. Positive but moderating jobs growth is expected in H1 2019...

The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October—well above the consensus estimate of 200,000. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%—the lowest since 1969—while labor force participation increased by 20 basis points (bps) to 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents in October and are up by 3.1% over the year. Despite recent stock market volatility and potential employment impacts from Hurricane Florence, the October jobs report showed solid gains across all sectors of the economy, and wage growth for the year is at post-financial crisis highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly 60 basis points (bps) for the year. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate—a measure of markets’ expectations for inflation 10 years from now—has remained consistently above 2%, the Federal Reserve’s stated goal for inflation...

U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at a better-than-expected annualized rate of 3.5% in Q3, slowing from Q2's 4.2%. The Q3 result is strong, but the deceleration from Q2 reflects a downturn in exports and nonresidential fixed investment. Growth was driven by a strong 4% gain in consumer spending—which comprises more than two-thirds of GDP—and an increase in government spending. Economic growth remains on track for its strongest performance since the global financial crisis...

The U.S. economy added 134,000 jobs in September—far fewer than the 185,000 expected. This was the slowest growth in a year. Unemployment declined to 3.7% while labor force participation was unchanged at 62.7%. Revisions raised the new jobs tally for July and August by 87,000. Average hourly earnings were up 2.8% year-over-year, slowing slightly from August.

Although Hurricane Florence (unsurprisingly) dampened September hiring, hiring activity will likely slow somewhat from its relatively strong run in H1 2018. The Fed's hiking the 10-year this week was largely due to strong hiring activity in the private sector...

Rising U.S. interest rates and an uncertain outlook for the dollar have driven up hedging costs for investors from Japan and South Korea over the past year, making it harder for them to compete for U.S. real estate deals. This is beginning to impact the market—investment volume for Japanese and South Korean investors was down 62% year-over-year in Q1. Investment strategies continue to adjust and Asian investors aren't out of the game, but the pace has certainly slowed...

It was a pleasure to present at the recent CBRE 2018 Multifamily Conference in Chicago. Presentation materials are available here.

Richard discussed global capital flows and the important drivers of the "wall of capital" targeting U.S. CRE. He notes that many of these drivers will likely remain strong for a decade.

I addressed emerging tech cities, employing EA's proprietary LWP index and transactions database.

Richard Barkham, EA’s Chairman and CBRE Global Chief Economist, recently addressed the National Association for Business Economists regarding the economic cycle and its current implications for commercial real estate. As EA has consistently been at the frontier of thought leadership for commercial real estate, we thought we would share his slides and his thoughts to the broader community.

The mall is one of the most successful business models of all time, so its recent loss of traction in the marketplace has caused concern in the U.S. retail property sector. There has been a tendency to attribute the lack of growth to online sales and concomitant growth in the logistics sector, but is e-commerce really the juggernaut of popular perception?

Our near-term expectations.

One piece of economic news went relatively unnoticed in the lead-up to the Fed’s December rate-hike decision: South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea—often considered a bellwether of interest rates in Asia—had already raised its benchmark rate at the end of November.