CBRE EA BLOG Deconstructing CRE

  • October jobs report: Strong report; higher wages are here

    Nov 4, 2018, 20:30 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October—well above the consensus estimate of 200,000. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%—the lowest since 1969—while labor force participation increased by 20 basis points (bps) to 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents in October and are up by 3.1% over the year. Despite recent stock market volatility and potential employment impacts from Hurricane Florence, the October jobs report showed solid gains across all sectors of the economy, and wage growth for the year is at post-financial crisis highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly 60 basis points (bps) for the year. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate—a measure of markets’ expectations for inflation 10 years from now—has remained consistently above 2%, the Federal Reserve’s stated goal for inflation...
    Full story
  • Strongest Q3 GDP Growth Since 2014

    Oct 26, 2018, 12:08 PM by Richard Barkham
    U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at a better-than-expected annualized rate of 3.5% in Q3, slowing from Q2's 4.2%. The Q3 result is strong, but the deceleration from Q2 reflects a downturn in exports and nonresidential fixed investment. Growth was driven by a strong 4% gain in consumer spending—which comprises more than two-thirds of GDP—and an increase in government spending. Economic growth remains on track for its strongest performance since the global financial crisis...
    Full story
  • September jobs report: Hiring and wages cool; unemployment at 49-year low

    Oct 5, 2018, 15:36 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 134,000 jobs in September—far fewer than the 185,000 expected. This was the slowest growth in a year. Unemployment declined to 3.7% while labor force participation was unchanged at 62.7%. Revisions raised the new jobs tally for July and August by 87,000. Average hourly earnings were up 2.8% year-over-year, slowing slightly from August.

    Although Hurricane Florence (unsurprisingly) dampened September hiring, hiring activity will likely slow somewhat from its relatively strong run in H1 2018. The Fed's hiking the 10-year this week was largely due to strong hiring activity in the private sector...
    Full story
  • Asian investors are getting less bang for their buck in the U.S.

    Jun 25, 2018, 11:23 AM by Richard Barkham
    Rising U.S. interest rates and an uncertain outlook for the dollar have driven up hedging costs for investors from Japan and South Korea over the past year, making it harder for them to compete for U.S. real estate deals. This is beginning to impact the market—investment volume for Japanese and South Korean investors was down 62% year-over-year in Q1. Investment strategies continue to adjust and Asian investors aren't out of the game, but the pace has certainly slowed...
    Full story
  • Presentation Slides: The Wall of Capital, and Emerging Tech Cities

    May 3, 2018, 11:54 AM by Tim Savage
    It was a pleasure to present at the recent CBRE 2018 Multifamily Conference in Chicago. Presentation materials are available here.

    Richard discussed global capital flows and the important drivers of the "wall of capital" targeting U.S. CRE. He notes that many of these drivers will likely remain strong for a decade.

    I addressed emerging tech cities, employing EA's proprietary LWP index and transactions database.
    Full story
  • Presentation Slides: Will this be the longest real estate boom ever?

    Apr 20, 2018, 13:34 PM by Tim Savage
    Richard Barkham, EA’s Chairman and CBRE Global Chief Economist, recently addressed the National Association for Business Economists regarding the economic cycle and its current implications for commercial real estate. As EA has consistently been at the frontier of thought leadership for commercial real estate, we thought we would share his slides and his thoughts to the broader community.
    Full story
  • If Clicks Were Bricks: Assessing the threat to malls from online shopping

    Mar 16, 2018, 15:14 PM by Richard Barkham
    The mall is one of the most successful business models of all time, so its recent loss of traction in the marketplace has caused concern in the U.S. retail property sector. There has been a tendency to attribute the lack of growth to online sales and concomitant growth in the logistics sector, but is e-commerce really the juggernaut of popular perception?
    Full story
  • U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and beyond

    Feb 1, 2018, 13:45 PM by Richard Barkham
    Our near-term expectations.
    Full story
  • Are we looking at tighter money in Asia in 2018?

    Jan 31, 2018, 15:12 PM by Richard Barkham
    One piece of economic news went relatively unnoticed in the lead-up to the Fed’s December rate-hike decision: South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea—often considered a bellwether of interest rates in Asia—had already raised its benchmark rate at the end of November.
    Full story
redirect pin user minus plus fax mobile-phone office-phone data envelope globe outlook retail close line-arrow-down solid-triangle-down facebook globe2 google hamburger line-arrow-left solid-triangle-left linkedin play-btn line-arrow-right solid-triangle-right search twitter line-arrow-up solid-triangle-up calendar globe-americas globe-apac globe-emea external-link music picture paper pictures play gallery download rss-feed vcard