After 10 consecutive weeks of occupancy gains, the hotel industry was in a better position than we expected six weeks prior. For the week ending in June 27, U.S. hotels reached more than 46% occupancy, more than double the low point of 22% in April.
However, an uptick in COVID-19 cases threatens the positive momentum. As more states pause their reopening plans, a resurgence in cases is expected to once again impact lodging demand. The speed of recovery is expected to slow in July and August, especially for luxury and upscale properties.
Our forecasts show that RevPAR will decline 52% this year, and occupancies will average just 41%. We expect a strong hotel revenue recovery in 2021 and 2022, and that RevPAR could recover to precrisis levels by mid-2023.
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