• As obsolescence plagues malls, neighborhood centers remain resilient (data available)

    Jan 8, 2024, 14:13 PM by Matt Mowell
    Lifestyle & Mall availability rates have been bouncing around the 5% to 6% range for the past several years. While this is higher than the sub-3% rates that were typical prior to the Global Financial Crisis, current availability is not as bad as the scores of “dead” malls throughout the suburbs might suggest.
  • Data paints nuanced picture for retail in San Francisco Bay Area (data available)

    Oct 9, 2023, 08:25 AM by Matt Mowell
    In the eyes of the international media, San Francisco has become the poster child for “the death of urban retail.” The media’s obsessive focus on Downtown San Francisco, however, masks nuances in the broader Bay Area retail market.
  • Like people and jobs, Dallas’s retail space marches north

    Jul 19, 2023, 10:31 AM by Matt Mowell
    In the 1990s, when regional malls held sway in American culture, the mega-sized Galleria and NorthPark Center were prominent features of Dallas’s retail landscape. Fast forward 20-30 years, and retail real estate has followed Dallas’s explosive population growth northward.
  • Suburban shopping is hip again (data available)

    Jul 12, 2023, 14:40 PM by Matt Mowell
    For the first time since 2006 the retail availability rate across America’s central business districts (CBD) today is higher than in the suburbs. Chalk it up to another enduring effect of the rise of remote work.
  • Retail space is continuing to right-size (data available)

    Mar 27, 2023, 14:17 PM by Daniel Diebel
    Had retail space been overbuilt in previous cycles? Is it just now reaching supply-demand equilibrium?
  • The Unsung Hero

    Feb 3, 2023, 14:36 PM by Daniel Diebel
    Hardly any new retail space has been constructed during the past decade. Meanwhile, brick-and-mortar retail sales have risen as Americans spend more on experiences at places like restaurants, cafes and breweries. We expect a continued fall in the ratio of absorption to new stock.
  • Consumers pessimistic, but still spending

    Jul 25, 2022, 12:39 PM by Matt Mowell
    Gloomy sentiment surveys suggest consumers should be pulling back on purchases. However, reported retail sales show that consumers are spending freely.
  • Tourists Matter More Than 'Clicks' for Retail Performance in Many Markets

    Jun 2, 2022, 13:31 PM by Matt Mowell
    CBRE EA’s market analysis shows that a one percentage point increase in e-commerce sales has only a slightly negative impact on 5-year brick-and-mortar rent growth.
  • Excess Household Savings Could Lead to Boost in Retail Spending Through 2023

    Apr 11, 2022, 14:22 PM by Daniel Diebel
    Consumer spending is likely to increase this year and next and shift from goods to services, assuming COVID-19 remains under control. This could give a boost to lifestyle retailers in affluent trade areas and popular leisure travel destinations.
  • Retail sector provides strong value-add investment opportunity

    Dec 22, 2021, 11:55 AM by Daniel Diebel
    Changing fundamentals, a shifting population and stable cash flow lead the retail sector to once again catch investors' attention. Read more in our latest report.
  • Retail Occupier Distribution

    Jun 2, 2021, 10:00 AM by Christina Tong
  • Q1 2021 Retail Forecast and Rent Measurement Methodology Change

    May 11, 2021, 10:09 AM by Christina Tong
  • A Sector Update: Spring Forum 2021

    Apr 15, 2021, 15:44 PM by User Not Found
    We assembled a panel of expert economists who specialize in each property type to talk about the outlook and pandemic implications for each. Read the recap or watch the presentation.
  • Retail Forecast Q4 2020

    Feb 8, 2021, 15:57 PM by Christina Tong
    We expect a major increase in the retail availability rate which is forecasted to reach its peak in Q4 2021 at 12.5%, 386 bps higher than the pre-COVID level. We forecast that rents will fall and reach the bottom in Q1 2022.
  • EA's Top Takeaways for 2021

    Jan 12, 2021, 09:18 AM by User Not Found
    It was a tumultuous 2020 and high levels of COVID-19 infections mean that it will be a difficult start to 2021, but economic prospects for the rest of the year are bright. This will provide a much more supportive environment for real estate, but challenges remain.
  • Retail Forecast Q3 2020

    Nov 13, 2020, 09:45 AM by Christina Tong
    We expected to see another surge of e-commerce from the holiday sales as brick and mortar stores face limited capacity, social distancing and consumers fearing indoor public spaces. However, brick and mortar spaces are still valuable in terms of providing omni-channel options for both retailers and consumers.
  • Which malls close?

    Sep 10, 2020, 11:51 AM by User Not Found
    Are there patterns in the data relating the likelihood of a shopping center’s demise to its location and characteristics?
  • Retail Forecast: Q2 2020

    Aug 7, 2020, 11:39 AM by Christina Tong
    Despite recent improvement in monthly retail sales data, a resurgence of COVID-19 cases poses concerns about additional temporary closures for retailers in regional hot spots. In addition, we are witnessing high-profile bankruptcies almost on a weekly basis, along with announcements of store closures.
  • U.S. Retail Availability Index Q2 2020

    Jul 23, 2020, 14:09 PM by Christina Tong
    The availability rate increased from the previous quarter in 54 of EA’s 63 tracked markets (including the sum of markets). It remains unclear whether retail sales will continue to have a strong bounce back in the following quarters once the federal stimulus checks and unemployment benefits disappear.
  • Retail Recovery Varies by State and Category

    Jun 26, 2020, 10:01 AM by Christina Tong
    The impact of COVID-19 has put additional pressure on the retail industry, which will continue. However, with retail sectors being impacted so differently, their recoveries will have different trajectory paths.
  • Retail Forecast: Q1 2020

    May 12, 2020, 11:50 AM by Christina Tong
    We are expecting a major increase in the availability rate due to the pandemic, which we forecast to reach its peak in Q1 2021 at 12.5%. Our expectations are that both availability rate and rent will take 3 years to stabilize.
  • Rising trucking costs could mark a tipping point for U.S. consumer prices

    Jun 21, 2018, 08:43 AM by User Not Found
    A significant (and worsening) shortage of truck drivers is raising shipping costs, which may spark the expected inflationary pressures that have thus far remained absent...
  • Market Affordability: Looking ahead

    Feb 23, 2018, 15:29 PM by User Not Found
    I recently moved from Boston to Denver and the difference in cost of living served as a welcome income multiplier. I'm not alone in that experience: strong push and pull factors are underpinning U.S. demographic and migration trends (and the local economic strength of markets like Denver, Austin, Nashville, Phoenix and more).

    So what lies ahead for affordability?
  • The Shopping Journey of the Future

    Dec 27, 2017, 09:34 AM by User Not Found
    From a consumer perspective, it will be spectacular. From a retailer perspective, there will be winners and losers, as always.
  • Has real estate been a good hedge against inflation? Will it be in the future?

    Jul 21, 2017, 13:06 PM by User Not Found
    Real estate cap rates' decline alongside government interest rates over the past 30 years has buoyed returns, with property values at pace with inflation but property net income falling behind. If cap rates begin to rise, appreciation could vanish.
  • Why is U.S. food consumption resisting the internet?

    Jun 21, 2017, 15:02 PM by User Not Found
    Online ordering of groceries is thriving and growing across the EU, but if “clicks” are to ever penetrate “bricks” in U.S. food consumption, a hybrid model may be necessary.
  • A familiar slow start for GDP growth

    Apr 28, 2017, 15:46 PM by User Not Found
    Q1 GDP growth was the slowest in three years. How concerned should we be?
  • A more accurate historical measure of real estate stock

    Apr 6, 2017, 10:06 AM by Jing Ren
    In maintaining a historical time series of real estate stock, the industry standard approach is to calculate past quarters' stock levels by subtracting buildings from the current level according to their ages. This method doesn't account for buildings that were demolished, however, so the standard measure of historical stock is, by definition, an underestimation. To see if we can address this, we are developing a “gross” stock series that adds back...
  • February retail sales disappoint; economic and immigration policy are risks

    Mar 16, 2017, 11:42 AM by Jing Ren
    With weakness in most segments, February retail sales disappointed. Delayed tax refunds and immigration policy may have contributed to the weak retail sales—the latter a particular source of concern for retailers in markets with large immigrant populations. Policy on immigration and the economy may represent the greatest risk to retail markets over the coming quarters.
  • It's not a recession you should be thinking about... It's three recessions

    Feb 16, 2017, 22:08 PM by Jing Ren
    Every economic recession has its unique origins, but it can also usually be characterized by the macroeconomic scenario that sparked it. The three scenarios that typically cause recessions have unique impacts on individual markets and property types and are the key to understanding how your portfolio will weather recessions to come.
  • Retailers thankful for a confident U.S. consumer

    Dec 26, 2016, 14:37 PM by User Not Found
    Concern about a slowdown in consumer spending can go on the back burner, thanks to recently revised data from the BEA. The latest release shows significantly better Q3 personal consumption growth (2.8%) that was initially estimated (2.1%).
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