Retail cap rates have been rising since Q1 2020. Office cap rates increased slightly during the pandemic, and we expect they will stabilize and then decline as companies bring employees back to the office. Apartment and industrial weathered the crisis and the cap rates are expected to compress further.
Through the USPS, we were able to obtain a large dataset that opened our eyes to a few other trends in 2020, highlighting the impact COVID had on permanent relocations. The data shows that people who are leaving their homes are not going far; most people moved within 100 miles.
Global Economic Outlook: It’s Starting to Look Better
We have revised our view of the global economy and the U.S. outlook is now improved, up from 4.6 to 6.7% GDP growth, however we revised our outlook for Europe down. The outlook represents pre-existing economic momentum, progress in controlling the virus, and economic stimulus.