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Econometric Advisors' blog

  • 09-26-2023

    EV Manufacturing benefits the Southeast and Michigan

    Plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales have grown spectacularly over the past decade. Industry has responded by planning to expand North American battery plant capacity by 370% by 2025.
  • 09-18-2023

    The current office absorption trend is not new and that may be a good thing

    Many pandemic-accelerated trends are reverting to the mean. Both e-commerce sales and industrial & logistics leasing have moderated and multifamily vacancies in Manhattan are again the lowest nationally. What about office leasing?
  • 09-11-2023

    Insurance costs are no longer worry-free

    Over the past few years, property & casualty insurance has become more expensive and generally less available as certain carriers have withdrawn from states like Florida and California that are seen to be most at risk to climate change effects.
  • 08-31-2023

    Larger warehouses feeling the pinch from occupier cutbacks and spirited new construction

    Some logistics occupiers, especially general merchandisers, e-commerce companies and home-improvement retailers, are cutting their space commitments. This is resulting in an uptick in sublease space, particularly for warehouses larger than 300,000 sq. ft.
  • 08-30-2023

    Multifamily rent growth to persist where least expected

    To no one’s surprise, multifamily growth is slowing from the pre-COVID trend and certainly from recent years. Where rents are slowing the most is more surprising.
  • 08-23-2023

    Housing market dynamics may bode well for neighborhood retail, multifamily

    The housing market is in uncharted territory as affordability is worse than it was at the height of the mid-2000s housing mania while the for-sale inventory is at a multi-decade low. So, what does this mean for commercial real estate?
  • 08-16-2023

    The U.S. economy faces continued challenges

    Recession fears have been top of mind, but an upbeat labor market, the resilient consumer, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and falling inflation have engendered hopes from some observers of a so-called “soft landing.”
  • 08-09-2023

    What CBRE's Cap Rate Survey tells us about the market

    Our H1 2023 Cap Rate Survey results provide clues about how asset pricing has evolved during the year’s first six months.
  • 08-01-2023

    A Harry Markowitz tribute: Modern Portfolio Theory and the case for U.S. real estate

    The headlines say it's time to divest U.S. commercial real estate. But Modern Portfolio Theory finds that the optimal commercial real estate portfolio would include more than 50% exposure to U.S. real estate with the balance favoring APAC.
  • 07-27-2023

    H1 2023 Cap Rate Survey Now Available

    The H1 2023 Cap Rate Survey provides a fresh perspective of where market sentiment is trending. The CRS captures more than 3,000 cap rate estimates across more than 50 geographic markets to generate key insights from a wealth of data.
  • 07-19-2023

    Like people and jobs, Dallas’s retail space marches north

    In the 1990s, when regional malls held sway in American culture, the mega-sized Galleria and NorthPark Center were prominent features of Dallas’s retail landscape. Fast forward 20-30 years, and retail real estate has followed Dallas’s explosive population growth northward.
  • 07-18-2023

    Impact of gross imports and exports of goods on warehouse demand

    Our analysis uncovers a more evolving understanding of how domestic production or onshoring influences the industrial real estate market. It challenges sector stakeholders to abandon broad-stroke assumptions and further examine the impacts of shifting trade dynamics on warehouse demand.
  • 07-12-2023

    Suburban shopping is hip again

    For the first time since 2006 the retail availability rate across America’s central business districts (CBD) today is higher than in the suburbs. Chalk it up to another enduring effect of the rise of remote work.
  • 06-27-2023

    Rental housing could benefit from a softer for-sale market

    With record home prices and rising interest rates, more and more people have chosen to rent. It is likely that mortgage rates will ease in coming quarters providing some relief to homebuyers.
  • 06-21-2023

    Multifamily vacancy poised to rise in all major markets

    Multifamily vacancy rates, currently hovering near pre-COVID levels, are poised to increase. A moderate recession—which we believe will begin later this year—will temper household formation and lead to higher vacancy in every major market.
  • 06-21-2023

    Industrial stock clustered around highway ramps in major logistics hubs

    It is widely believed that Industrial real estate clusters along highways. We analyzed metro Atlanta, an important logistics hub serviced by multiple interstates and state highways, to test this hypothesis.
  • 06-13-2023

    REIT valuations signal lower private asset values ahead

    Transaction activity is down due to wide bid-ask spreads. Meanwhile, REIT implied cap rates have increased sharply, particularly for office space, as manifested in significant discounts to NAV. But a few distressed office asset sales suggest that REITs are on to something, and private-market devaluation will catch up soon.
  • 06-08-2023

    The Office Sector Debt-Funding Gap is Likely to Increase

    Between 2023-2025, CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA) forecasts office owners will face a financing gap of $72.7 billion (26.4% of the lending volume originated in 2018-2020). This will likely lead to distress for some property investors and force others to inject more cash into their properties.
  • 06-07-2023

    The 1990s offer solace from today’s office pains

    The office market has been on its back before. Past experience tells us the preconditions to recovery include a throttling back of the new supply pipeline and painful distress sales that provide necessary price signals.
  • 06-01-2023

    In-migration resumes in some urban centers

    Migration—both domestic and international—is the most important factor influencing population change within American communities. New Census Bureau data shows how migration has impacted population change in U.S. counties.

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