The San Francisco Bay Area was the poster child of COVID-era dislocation, with the retail and multifamily sectors particularly hard hit. 

The dark red clusters in this map show the areas where rent losses were most severe between 2019 and 2024. Conversely, the green clusters depict areas where rent actually grew.

The most dramatic rent declines were in downtown San Francisco and Oakland, as dense population centers lost their allure during the pandemic. Downtown San Francisco and SoMa are among the most crowded places in the United States, with some 24,000 residents per square mile. Their residents are typically young, single and highly mobile. 

Parts of San Mateo County and Palo Alto also suffered rent declines. While these places are not especially dense, they are very expensive, forcing many residents to rethink the value of location in an economy going increasingly remote. 

On the other hand, many suburban communities, especially across the East Bay and San Jose, enjoyed healthy rental growth. These communities are about one-third less densely populated than downtown Oakland. Prior research has revealed that most COVID-era relocations were less than 100 miles, suggesting that the suburbs were the prime beneficiary of the move-outs from the downtown communities. 

But these trends are solidly in the rear-view mirror. Multifamily rent growth in San Francisco and San Jose is expected to exceed the national average through 2025.