• Disruption in the Lodging Industry: Different Views on Recovery Length

    May 22, 2020, 13:56 PM by Bram Gallagher
    The COVID-19 global pandemic has thrown the lodging industry into an unprecedented stoppage. Recently, as occupancies have reached all-time lows and closures are widespread, focus and interest has changed from the early pandemic question of “how bad will it get?” to “How long can it last?”
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  • Office Forecast: Q1 2020

    May 14, 2020, 10:29 AM by Alex Krasikov
    The ongoing pandemic, which reached the U.S. in January-February, didn’t gather enough strength to derail commercial office activity in the first quarter of 2020. Favorable results were in part due to completions of ongoing deals that weren’t put on hold, quarterly data collection methods used, and reasonably optimistic views on the expected duration and severity of the economic slowdown.
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  • Apartments Forecast: Q1 2020

    May 13, 2020, 08:31 AM by Nathan Adkins
    Though apartment fundamentals are expected to hit their weakest points one quarter later than employment, they are also projected to return to pre-COVID levels more quickly, hitting Q1 2020 levels one quarter earlier, in Q1 2022.
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  • Industrial Forecast: Q1 2020

    May 12, 2020, 11:50 AM by Ibrahiim Bayaan
    The current economic developments are going to have some noticeable negative effects on industrial real estate trends over the next couple of quarters. However, the industrial market should benefit in the short term as consumers shift more of their purchases online.
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  • Retail Forecast: Q1 2020

    May 12, 2020, 11:50 AM by Christina Tong
    We are expecting a major increase in the availability rate due to the pandemic, which we forecast to reach its peak in Q1 2021 at 12.5%. Our expectations are that both availability rate and rent will take 3 years to stabilize.
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  • Macro Forecast: Q1 2020

    May 12, 2020, 11:46 AM by Matt Mowell
    The U.S. economy is expected to end the year nearly 4% below 2019 levels. If future COVID-19 transmissions can be controlled, we expect economic growth will hit 6% in 2021.
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  • Introducing New Apartments Submarkets

    Apr 29, 2020, 14:56 PM by Nathan Adkins
    Please be aware of changes to our Apartment Submarket definitions. The 886 Apartment SubmarketIDs that have historically been delivered are being retired and a new set of 800 SubmarketIDs will be added.
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  • Current Macro Outlook & Preview of Forecast Scenarios for the Q1 2020 Data Release

    Apr 22, 2020, 08:59 AM by Mary Suter
    Our economists just presented their views on the U.S. economy and major factors driving our upcoming Q1 2020 forecast scenarios on a client call. They detailed the implications of the rapidly evolving COVID-19 situation to the U.S. property markets. Download the presentation to learn more about CBRE’s house view, a look at cities, and a preview of our macro scenarios. Recording will be posted soon.
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  • Submarkets: Data and Methodology

    Apr 10, 2020, 10:38 AM by Nathan Adkins
    CBRE EA is updating its forecasting methodology by integrating our market and submarket forecasts into a single multilevel model.
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  • Team Update: Congratulations and Welcome

    Apr 7, 2020, 11:14 AM by Richard Barkham
    In a time when forecasting has become even more crucial, I am honored to introduce you to two new economists and announce the promotions of several EA team members.
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  • U.S. Economic Watch: March Jobs Report Understates COVID-19 Economic Impact; More Losses to Come

    Apr 6, 2020, 12:46 PM by Richard Barkham
    March marked the end of 113 consecutive months of job growth—the longest stretch in U.S. history. The unemployment rate rose nearly a full percentage point to 4.4%.
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  • Covid-19 Economic Impact and Sector Update

    Mar 31, 2020, 14:16 PM by Jamie Lane
    Our economists have been continuously updating our forecasts as new data becomes available. Below is a summary of our economists’ sector specific outlooks.
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  • [UPDATED - 04/14/20] An Updated 2020 Hotels Outlook

    Mar 24, 2020, 13:39 PM by Jamie Lane
    CBRE Hotels Research has released a preliminary 2020 forecast that analyzes the impact of the pandemic on hotel performance and provides insight as to how hotels may start to recover in the back half of the year.
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  • Coronavirus: Social Distancing and the Secular Trend Toward a “Virtual Society”

    Mar 19, 2020, 14:28 PM by Bill Wheaton
    How will the coronavirus and necessary social distancing affect secular shifts toward a more long-term virtual society?
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  • CBRE EA Spring Forum Recap: Will Multifamily Appeal be Threatened by Rent Control Legislation

    Mar 17, 2020, 15:13 PM by Jeanette Rice
    We are facing a growing housing affordability problem. This led to rent control in some states. But what are the implications?
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  • Fed Cuts Rates to Zero as COVID-19 Weighs on Markets

    Mar 17, 2020, 09:42 AM by Richard Barkham
    The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by 100 basis points (bps) yesterday to a target range of 0% to 0.25%.
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  • CBRE EA Spring Forum Recap: Logistics and the Rapidly Changing Distribution Center

    Mar 16, 2020, 12:56 PM by James Breeze
    E-commerce is rapidly, and permanently, changing the logistics and supply chain market. At 15% of total retail sales (double what it was 5 years ago), e-commerce is expected to account for 39% of retail sales by 2030.
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  • CBRE EA Spring Forum Recap: New Developments in Real Estate Indices & Research Delivery

    Mar 13, 2020, 13:59 PM by Christina Tong
    We are introducing several new tools and methods. Some highlights include: a new repeat rent index, Locator, Forecaster, and Builder. These all take advantage of new data sets and models.
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  • How important is the FED balance sheet in determining cap rates?

    Mar 12, 2020, 16:26 PM by Jing Ren
    After years of winding down its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve announced last Fall that it will restart the purchasing activity. While the FED didn’t specify how much it is willing to purchase, besides stating short-term goals, CBRE Research projects that the FED balance sheet could eclipse its previous high in the next 10 years.
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  • U.S. Economic Watch: February Job Growth Far Exceeds Expectations Despite Uncertainty Over Coronavirus

    Mar 6, 2020, 15:45 PM by Richard Barkham
    Strong employment growth occurred despite the late-January emergence of coronavirus in the U.S., which accelerated by late February and caused dramatic stock market volatility.
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  • Coronavirus and Supply Chain: Implications for the Industrial market

    Mar 6, 2020, 15:12 PM by Ibrahiim Bayaan
    It is likely that the supply chain disruptions and general uncertainty caused by the Covid-19 virus are going to prolong the difficulties of the manufacturing sector.
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  • Coronavirus and the Fear of Travel: Implications for the Lodging Market

    Mar 6, 2020, 14:06 PM by Bram Gallagher
    Of all commercial property types, hospitality is likely the most sensitive to fear and uncertainty. CBRE EA is closely monitoring the lingering effects of COVID-19 and will consider the pandemic’s impact in our upcoming forecasts.
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  • Short-Term Rentals: A Maturing U.S. Market & Its Impact on Traditional Hotels

    Feb 26, 2020, 10:46 AM by Jamie Lane
    CBRE recently released a report analyzing the short-term rental (STR) market’s growth and impact on traditional hotels. There no longer is any question that STRs are here to stay.
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  • Global Economic Outlook: Positives Still Outweigh the Negatives

    Feb 24, 2020, 13:46 PM by Richard Barkham
    Just as geopolitical headwinds eased in late January with a phase-one U.S./China trade deal and the U.K. formally leaving the European Union, worries about the Chinese coronavirus outbreak surged and the growing optimism on global growth dampened.
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  • Top Takeaways from ALIS

    Feb 20, 2020, 14:04 PM by Jamie Lane
    CBRE is a proud sponsor of the Americas Lodging and Investment Summit (ALIS) which proved to be another successful and insightful event last month.
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  • U.S. Economic Watch: Hiring Accelerates, Well Exceeds Expectations

    Feb 11, 2020, 14:50 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. added 225,000 jobs in January 2020, far surpassing the expectation of 158,000. November and December employment reports were revised upward by a combined 5,000 jobs, putting the three-month average at 211,000 per month. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.6% due to an increase in the labor force participation rate to 63.4%.
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  • Please Welcome Our New Economist, Ibrahiim Bayaan

    Feb 4, 2020, 06:18 AM by Jamie Lane
    I am proud to announce that CBRE Econometric Advisors has added Ibrahiim Bayaan to our group of esteemed economists.
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  • Partnership with Oxford Economics

    Dec 13, 2019, 09:50 AM by Jamie Lane
    CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA) has chosen Oxford Economics as its principal economic data and macro-economic forecast partner. EA clients in the Americas should expect only minimal changes.
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  • Summary of EA's Q3 outlook: Macro and by sector

    Oct 31, 2019, 08:47 AM by Jamie Lane
    Although GDP and job growth are slowing, unemployment remains near its cyclical low and consumer spending is showing resilience. While the economy remains healthy and broadly supportive of property market fundamentals, absorption of real estate will likely slow through 2020.
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  • June jobs report: Rebound from a weak May; Fed stays on course for rate cuts

    Jul 9, 2019, 09:05 AM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 224,000 jobs in June, well up from May's 72,000. Unemployment and labor force participation each ticked up 10 bps—to 3.7% and 62.8%, respectively. The June report marks 104 consecutive months of U.S. job growth—the longest stretch ever.
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  • May jobs report: Weak performance increases odds of Fed cut

    Jun 7, 2019, 15:32 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 75,000 jobs in May—far fewer than the expected 175,000. Unemployment was flat at 3.6%, as was labor force participation at 62.8%. The May report marks the longest ever stretch of U.S. job growth: 104 consecutive months.
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  • April jobs report: Job growth surges; lowest unemployment since 1969

    May 3, 2019, 15:57 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April—far above expectations for 190,000. Unemployment declined 20 bps to 3.6%, while labor force participation declined 20 bps to 62.8%. Average hourly earnings were flat, year over year, at 3.2%.
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  • Where are the workers coming from? January and February

    Mar 11, 2019, 15:27 PM by Bill Wheaton
    The past year’s job growth is unsustainable without structural change in labor force participation. In the past year, participation has ticked up significantly—from a nine-year decline—but a secular reduction in job growth seems inevitable...
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  • February jobs report: Strong wage growth offsets low job creation

    Mar 8, 2019, 16:10 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 20,000 jobs in February—far below expectations for 180,000. Unemployment declined 20 bps to 3.8%, while labor force participation remained at 63.2%. Average hourly earnings were up 3.4%, year over year—the strongest growth in 10 years.
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  • U.S. Macro Model Briefing Note

    Jan 31, 2019, 08:59 AM by Nikhil Mohan
    Econometric Advisors’ U.S. macro model is a compact model that captures the main high-level features and interactions of the U.S. economy, including the macroeconomic variables needed to drive EA’s metro-level real estate forecasts...
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  • December jobs report: Strong jobs growth counters market volatility

    Jan 4, 2019, 15:40 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December—well above the consensus estimate of 176,000. Unemployment ticked up to 3.9%, while labor force participation increased by slightly to 63.1%. Positive but moderating jobs growth is expected in H1 2019...
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  • What kind of construction delays might we see in Q4 2018?

    Dec 4, 2018, 14:19 PM by Nathan Adkins
    Recent construction data suggest that multifamily supply growth will peak in Q4 2018 and correct to near the 10-year average by 2020. If you’ve been reading EA’s Q3 2018 Apartment Overview and Outlook, you may be saying, “don’t completions routinely come in at 15-25% under the construction projections?” What kind of construction delays might we see in Q4 2018?
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  • Why firms choose “edge cities”: Arlington and Queens

    Nov 21, 2018, 11:34 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Locating up to 25,000 new employees in Arlington and Queens will certainly have its effects on local real estate. But while local rents and commercial values will definitely rise, the broadest impacts will occur in a number of residential areas radiating out from these two sites. Living out on Long Island or beyond the beltway running SW of D.C. just became a whole lot more attractive...
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  • October jobs report: Strong report; higher wages are here

    Nov 4, 2018, 20:30 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October—well above the consensus estimate of 200,000. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%—the lowest since 1969—while labor force participation increased by 20 basis points (bps) to 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents in October and are up by 3.1% over the year. Despite recent stock market volatility and potential employment impacts from Hurricane Florence, the October jobs report showed solid gains across all sectors of the economy, and wage growth for the year is at post-financial crisis highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly 60 basis points (bps) for the year. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate—a measure of markets’ expectations for inflation 10 years from now—has remained consistently above 2%, the Federal Reserve’s stated goal for inflation...
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  • Can landlords really pass higher property taxes on to tenants?

    Nov 2, 2018, 12:45 PM by Bill Wheaton
    A standard commercial lease will incorporate a share of the building’s property tax costs into the rent. In this way, landlords can automatically pass tax increases on to tenants through rent increases. But do landlords always have the market power to do this—to keep the tax “incidence,” or burden, on the tenant?...
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  • Strongest Q3 GDP Growth Since 2014

    Oct 26, 2018, 12:08 PM by Richard Barkham
    U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at a better-than-expected annualized rate of 3.5% in Q3, slowing from Q2's 4.2%. The Q3 result is strong, but the deceleration from Q2 reflects a downturn in exports and nonresidential fixed investment. Growth was driven by a strong 4% gain in consumer spending—which comprises more than two-thirds of GDP—and an increase in government spending. Economic growth remains on track for its strongest performance since the global financial crisis...
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  • September jobs report: Hiring and wages cool; unemployment at 49-year low

    Oct 5, 2018, 15:36 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 134,000 jobs in September—far fewer than the 185,000 expected. This was the slowest growth in a year. Unemployment declined to 3.7% while labor force participation was unchanged at 62.7%. Revisions raised the new jobs tally for July and August by 87,000. Average hourly earnings were up 2.8% year-over-year, slowing slightly from August.

    Although Hurricane Florence (unsurprisingly) dampened September hiring, hiring activity will likely slow somewhat from its relatively strong run in H1 2018. The Fed's hiking the 10-year this week was largely due to strong hiring activity in the private sector...
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  • August jobs report: Job gains & wage growth top expectations

    Sep 7, 2018, 14:11 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    The U.S. economy added 201,000 jobs in August, beating market expectations. Unemployment remained at 3.9%, while labor force participation fell slightly, to 62.7%. Revisions lowered the new jobs tally for June and July by 50,000. Having averaged 207,000 new jobs monthly, this year likely will be the strongest for employment since 2015. Year-over-year wage growth was 2.9%—a sign that wages might finally rise higher after years of sluggish gains. Financial markets' mild reaction today suggests that they will wait to see whether wage growth continues its upward trend in the coming months...
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  • Extended cycle? Extended slow growth

    Aug 15, 2018, 12:47 PM by Wei Luo
    Why hasn’t rental growth climbed higher during this economic expansion?
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  • July jobs report: Moderate growth shows economy remains on solid footing

    Aug 3, 2018, 14:15 PM by Tim Savage
    U.S. employment rose by 157,000 jobs in July—short of both the consensus expectation for 190,000 and the past year's average monthly gain of 203,000. Excluding losses from the Toys R Us bankruptcy, the figure was very close to target. Unemployment fell slightly to 3.9%, while labor force participation went unchanged at 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents month-over-month, and wages were up 2.7% year-over-year. Substantial revisions to May and June jobs numbers resulted in a net gain of 59,000 jobs. The past year has seen employment grow by nearly 2.4 million jobs...
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  • China real estate market likely to fend off double threat

    Aug 2, 2018, 11:20 AM by Henry Chin
    Many critics claim that China’s property market is entering choppy waters, given escalating trade conflict with the U.S., domestic developers' mounting debt, and unprecedented deleveraging. The reality is more nuanced; while some sectors may endure short-term discomfort, the resilient market is likely to emerge unscathed from the current turbulence. Recent government measures, such as those opening the financial sector to qualified foreign investors and relaxing some FDI restrictions, are likely to offset much of any negative impact...
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  • Q2 GDP Growth Strongest Since 2014

    Jul 27, 2018, 13:44 PM by Tim Savage
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.1% in Q2—the strongest gain since 2014. In addition, Q1 growth was revised upward to 2.2% from 2.0%. Growth was driven by broad gains in consumption, exports, investment and government spending...
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  • Trade disputes so far having little impact on CRE

    Jul 18, 2018, 12:10 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    The U.S. and China recently imposed import tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s products, and may add more in weeks to come. The U.S. has also threatened tariffs on imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico; if we followed through, they would likely respond in kind. Given that imports require more space than exports, should trade disputes escalate, demand for U.S. industrial will likely decline...
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  • June jobs report: Growth beats expectations

    Jul 6, 2018, 13:21 PM by Tim Savage
    June’s jobs report signals that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, despite geopolitical and trade tensions. Other recent signs of strength include solid personal income and spending data. Jobs gains in retail, construction and manufacturing suggest that the economy continues to expand, showing late-cycle strength. While wage growth also beat expectations in June, it remains well below its historic trend.

    While financial markets have demonstrated some volatility over trade tensions, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is largely unchanged since February, and is nearly 25 bps below its May peak...
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  • Asian investors are getting less bang for their buck in the U.S.

    Jun 25, 2018, 11:23 AM by Richard Barkham
    Rising U.S. interest rates and an uncertain outlook for the dollar have driven up hedging costs for investors from Japan and South Korea over the past year, making it harder for them to compete for U.S. real estate deals. This is beginning to impact the market—investment volume for Japanese and South Korean investors was down 62% year-over-year in Q1. Investment strategies continue to adjust and Asian investors aren't out of the game, but the pace has certainly slowed...
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  • Rising trucking costs could mark a tipping point for U.S. consumer prices

    Jun 21, 2018, 08:43 AM by Nikhil Mohan
    A significant (and worsening) shortage of truck drivers is raising shipping costs, which may spark the expected inflationary pressures that have thus far remained absent...
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  • And now for something completely different...

    Jun 15, 2018, 09:39 AM by Tim Savage
    My recent presentation on machine learning and finance.  Enjoy.
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  • May jobs report: Strong jobs gains across industries, with modest wage growth

    Jun 1, 2018, 14:30 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    May’s jobs report might signal that the U.S. economy, after modest growth in Q1, is back on the move despite geopolitical and trade tensions. Outsized gains in retail, construction and manufacturing suggest an economy that is firing on all cylinders. Although wage growth also beat expectations in May, at 2.7% year over year, it remains well below historic trends.

    Financial markets have been jittery lately over trade tensions and political unrest in Italy; the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 2.8% on May 29. Stronger jobs numbers have pushed the yield back above 2.9%, however, and the dollar index has gained 0.2% as of today...
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  • Trade Wars: which real estate properties lose the most? ​

    May 25, 2018, 14:42 PM by Bill Wheaton
    The recent U.S.-China rhetoric may turn out to be just that, but we should consider what such a war might do to commercial real estate...
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  • Industrial automation may reduce net demand for industrial space

    May 18, 2018, 14:24 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Voices everywhere are suggesting that automation is about to radically change how the service sector works and generates demand for space. With U.S. manufacturing having been automating its processes for decades, we have just completed a study of how robots and automation have impacted U.S. industrial space markets since 1990...
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  • Forecasting: An Ongoing Discussion

    May 10, 2018, 10:23 AM by Tim Savage
    Our continuing discussion regarding the informed judgment and science of forecasting...
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  • April Jobs Report: Unemployment Lowest Since 2000; Slow Wage Inflation Cools Bond Market

    May 4, 2018, 12:55 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Monthly jobs reports continue to offer a mixed picture of the economy. April's job gains were lower than expected, while unemployment fell due to 236,000 leaving the workforce. Wage growth continued to puzzle, slowing despite the shrinking labor pool. Although low jobs numbers and slower wage growth might suggest slowing economic growth, lower employment gains might indicate that the labor market is reaching its limit, making an acceleration in wages imminent. The underemployment rate will be a key metric in the coming months; the still-high rate is often seen as a sign that the labor market has yet to reach capacity, explaining why wages haven’t increased significantly...
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  • Presentation Slides: The Wall of Capital, and Emerging Tech Cities

    May 3, 2018, 11:54 AM by Tim Savage
    It was a pleasure to present at the recent CBRE 2018 Multifamily Conference in Chicago. Presentation materials are available here.

    Richard discussed global capital flows and the important drivers of the "wall of capital" targeting U.S. CRE. He notes that many of these drivers will likely remain strong for a decade.

    I addressed emerging tech cities, employing EA's proprietary LWP index and transactions database.
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  • Q1 GDP stronger than anticipated

    Apr 27, 2018, 14:29 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in Q1—slower than Q4's 2.9% but quicker than the 2.1% consensus estimate. The better-than-expected performance came even though the economy was rattled by volatile stock markets and the announcement of potential tariffs on certain imports. Growth slower than the previous three quarters was due to weaker contributions from personal consumption expenditure, non-residential fixed investment, exports and government spending. Despite a buildup in inventories, slightly slower import growth subtracted a little from overall GDP growth...
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  • A change to EA's Apartment methodology

    Apr 27, 2018, 12:57 PM by Matthew Vance
    The apartment data we published today features revised historical time series, prompted by growth in the dataset. As our providers continue to expand their metro sample sizes and their overall geographic coverage, we have enhanced our aggregation methodology to give us greater flexibility in incorporating the new data...
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  • U.S. hotels' operating efficiency at its highest since 1960

    Apr 25, 2018, 21:47 PM by Jamie Lane
    CBRE Hotels' Americas Research annually surveys thousands of hotels' operating statements for our annual Trends® in the Hotel Industry report. In advance of the 2018 edition's early summer publication, we would like to share with EA clients the data tables from the report, along with some observations...
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  • Multifamily to get big boost from new tax plan

    Apr 25, 2018, 15:36 PM by Tim Savage
    The tax benefits of renting a home vs. buying will increase in 29 of the 35 largest U.S. markets—up from 15 markets before tax reform. Limitations on state and local tax deductions and the loss of the mortgage interest deduction on home purchases above $750,000 will marginally impact housing costs in high-cost markets, but will have negligible impact on population flows. The overall economic impact should be positive, but it's uncertain for how long, given the reform's late-cycle timing and the question of whether corporate tax savings will be sufficiently reinvested to cause job growth...
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  • Presentation Slides: Will this be the longest real estate boom ever?

    Apr 20, 2018, 13:34 PM by Tim Savage
    Richard Barkham, EA’s Chairman and CBRE Global Chief Economist, recently addressed the National Association for Business Economists regarding the economic cycle and its current implications for commercial real estate. As EA has consistently been at the frontier of thought leadership for commercial real estate, we thought we would share his slides and his thoughts to the broader community.
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  • Is a Fiscal-Monetary “Collision” Imminent?

    Apr 6, 2018, 15:52 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    A poorly timed fiscal stimulus—in the face of tighter monetary policy and an economy that has reached or is near its potential—could leave the economy weaker in the years to come.
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  • March Jobs Report: Employment Growth Slows; Wage Growth Rises

    Apr 6, 2018, 14:30 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Monthly job growth has averaged a relatively strong 202,000 for the past three months, but remains volatile, as do revisions. Average hourly earnings rose slightly in March. Wages have risen by 2.7% this year. In these results, there is no reason to think the Fed might change course in its normalization of monetary policy. Markets have already priced in two additional rate increases this year. The Fed could consider a third increase if wage growth remains above 2.5%, given uneven productivity growth.
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  • Apartment supply: What a market needs

    Mar 30, 2018, 13:27 PM by Matthew Vance
    Although many U.S. apartment markets and submarkets are seeing elevated supply trends soften their fundamentals, in some cases this is needed supply and these are the natural “growing pains” of densifying, maturing cities.
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  • Could blockchain benefit CRE?

    Mar 30, 2018, 09:43 AM by Wei Luo
    Blockchain has great potential to improve transaction efficiency in commercial real estate by easing due diligence and administrative requirements. Blockchain requires a large and functional ecosystem of participants, however, which has yet to form in the CRE space.
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  • The potential impact of rising steel prices on commercial real estate

    Mar 22, 2018, 15:02 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    President Trump’s recent executive order imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (25% and 10%, respectively) could increase the cost of commercial real estate construction. Costs will vary by asset type, local market conditions and materials used, but high-rise office and industrial building construction costs could rise modestly. While commodity prices have fluctuated in recent years, the primary driver of higher construction costs has been a scarcity of skilled labor, particularly in metro areas with the most development activity.
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  • If Clicks Were Bricks: Assessing the threat to malls from online shopping

    Mar 16, 2018, 15:14 PM by Richard Barkham
    The mall is one of the most successful business models of all time, so its recent loss of traction in the marketplace has caused concern in the U.S. retail property sector. There has been a tendency to attribute the lack of growth to online sales and concomitant growth in the logistics sector, but is e-commerce really the juggernaut of popular perception?
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  • February Jobs Report: Employment growth surprises to the upside, wage growth does not

    Mar 9, 2018, 13:52 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Employment gains continued to surprise to the upside in February. Meanwhile, wage growth slowed slightly—after the strong January increase that led investors to believe higher wage growth might be imminent. February’s report may quell some of that concern. Hiring increases were broad-based and robust in the construction, retail trade, manufacturing, professional & business services, financial activities, health care and mining sectors.
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  • Market Affordability: Looking ahead

    Feb 23, 2018, 15:29 PM by Matthew Vance
    I recently moved from Boston to Denver and the difference in cost of living served as a welcome income multiplier. I'm not alone in that experience: strong push and pull factors are underpinning U.S. demographic and migration trends (and the local economic strength of markets like Denver, Austin, Nashville, Phoenix and more).

    So what lies ahead for affordability?
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  • The Global Economy, Global Challenges and U.S. Real Estate

    Feb 23, 2018, 14:33 PM by Tim Savage
    It was a pleasure to present to CBRE colleagues and clients at the Union Club League of Chicago yesterday. My discussion addressed the current global economy's near-term implications for U.S. CRE. For those interested, the slides are here.
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  • January Jobs Report: Strong hiring leads to greater wage growth

    Feb 2, 2018, 11:50 AM by Nikhil Mohan
    The economy started off 2018 on a strong note, with employment gains surprising on the upside. Job growth has slowed in the past two years but remains solid. A tighter labor market may finally be translating into greater pay increases for workers—wages saw their largest increase since 2009 in January. Hiring was broad-based and robust in the construction, manufacturing, food services and health care sectors, with employment continuing to trend upward.
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  • The Tax Reform Act: The impact of the SALT deduction on real estate

    Feb 2, 2018, 00:31 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Eliminating the SALT deduction will ultimately reduce aggregate spending on public education, infrastructure, public safety and other locally and state-funded services. Many in Congress believe improving such services is necessary to make the U.S. more productive and competitive and to grow its economy. Ironically, eliminating SALT could have the opposite effect.
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  • U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: 2018 and beyond

    Feb 1, 2018, 13:45 PM by Richard Barkham
    Our near-term expectations.
    Full story
  • Are we looking at tighter money in Asia in 2018?

    Jan 31, 2018, 15:12 PM by Richard Barkham
    One piece of economic news went relatively unnoticed in the lead-up to the Fed’s December rate-hike decision: South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea—often considered a bellwether of interest rates in Asia—had already raised its benchmark rate at the end of November.
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  • GDP rises 2.6% in Q4; trade & inventory weigh down growth

    Jan 26, 2018, 13:15 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in Q4—slower than both the 3.2% registered in Q3 and the 3.0% consensus estimate. The weaker-than-expected growth reflected some drag from net exports and inventories, which somewhat offset the quarter's strong consumer spending. Government spending rose 3%, amid post-hurricane rebuilding efforts. For the year, GDP grew by 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016.
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  • The Tax Reform Act: Mortgage interest and housing capital gains

    Jan 26, 2018, 12:56 PM by Bill Wheaton
    The new tax reform act lowers the cap on the mortgage interest deduction and extends the holding period for capital gains inclusion. While the latter is probably good, the former will do little for homeownership.
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  • The Tax Reform Act: The expensing of investment

    Jan 19, 2018, 16:31 PM by Bill Wheaton
    The new tax reform act provides for a new and novel way to depreciate new capital investment—plant, equipment and buildings. In theory, the positive impact could be significant. In the current context, however, expensing raises some concerns.
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  • Addressing recent discrepancies in the industrial TW Rent Index

    Jan 15, 2018, 14:08 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Our rent index was lower in Q3. Here's why.
    Full story
  • How much should you care about planned units?

    Jan 8, 2018, 13:22 PM by Maximilian Saia
    In multifamily investment, a market’s supply pipeline is a critical factor in site selection. A looming supply overhang can raise vacancy and slow or invert rent growth, hurting revenue. Units under construction are the primary measure of supply risk, but it’s important to consider the risk posed by planned units as well.
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  • December Jobs Report: Employment growth cools as wages rise modestly

    Jan 5, 2018, 15:06 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    December saw 148,000 jobs added—less than the consensus expectation for 190,000. Hiring was broad-based, although retail jobs decreased by 20,300 despite reports of a strong holiday shopping season.
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  • Forecasting

    Jan 3, 2018, 17:39 PM by Tim Savage
    To paraphrase George Box, all forecasts are wrong, but some forecasts are useful.
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  • Talking data science with EA's Tim Savage

    Dec 27, 2017, 13:08 PM by Mary Suter
    EA's principal data scientist discusses work at EA and research he recently presented at NABE's Tec2017 conference.
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  • The Shopping Journey of the Future

    Dec 27, 2017, 09:34 AM by Wei Luo
    From a consumer perspective, it will be spectacular. From a retailer perspective, there will be winners and losers, as always.
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  • December rate rise: Fed raises rates as expected; three more hikes likely in 2018

    Dec 14, 2017, 13:42 PM by Jeff Havsy
    The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate 25 bps, to a target range of 1.25% to 1.50%. This was the Fed’s fourth 25-bps increase since December 2016 and was widely anticipated given the economy’s recent near-3% quarterly growth, robust job growth, record-low unemployment, modest wage gains and rising consumer and producer prices.
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  • We expect industrial net absorption to drop from 190 MSF in 2017 to 75 MSF in 2019. Why?

    Dec 1, 2017, 12:24 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Lower employment growth—we expect 0.88% in 2018 and -0.33% in 2019—will have negative implications for availability and rents as well.
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  • Data science has always been in the economist’s toolkit

    Nov 9, 2017, 15:44 PM by Maximilian Saia
    First with regression analysis and then econometrics—an indispensable and sizeable part of the machine-learning universe—the original data scientists, economists, have been at the table for decades.
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  • Jobs bounce back as hurricane impact fades

    Nov 3, 2017, 12:20 PM by Jeff Havsy
    October saw 261,000 jobs added, and September's decline has been revised to an 18,000-job gain, re-establishing the longest streak of monthly job gains since the series was begun in 1939. Although October's gain came in below consensus, the solid growth and upward revisions show the hurricanes' impact on employment to have been less severe than was thought in September.
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  • Three-year outlook: Capital appreciation in U.S. CRE assets unlikely; investors should focus on income

    Nov 2, 2017, 14:07 PM by Serguei Chervachidze
    Across the range of likely macroeconomic scenarios, appreciation returns—the mainstay of CRE returns over the past five years—are on hold for the next three years.
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  • Notes on China’s 19th National Congress, for American CRE

    Oct 30, 2017, 16:08 PM by Wei Luo
    China’s 19th National Congress was held in Beijing earlier this month. The meeting convenes every five years and sets the tone for Chinese economic and monetary policy for years to come. ​Here's what American CRE should know about this year's Congress.
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  • GDP rises 3% despite hurricanes

    Oct 27, 2017, 14:36 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q3 2017, surpassing the 2.5% consensus estimate. This was the best third quarter since Q3 2014—when growth was 5.2%—and it was only the third time that growth has reached 3% or higher in the past 12 quarters.
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  • CBRE Econometric Advisors and modern parlance: "Machine learning"

    Oct 26, 2017, 15:29 PM by Tim Savage
    CBRE Econometric Advisors has been doing machine learning and data science for decades.
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  • Check-in: Notes on current issues in the hotel industry

    Oct 20, 2017, 15:08 PM by Jack Corgel
    At CBRE Research’s annual conference last month, I joined Mark Carrier from BF Saul Hospitality group and Kate Henriksen from RLJ Lodging Trust to discuss the current cycle, peaking supply, the sharing economy, and more.
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  • The homeownership rate vs. U.S. apartment performance

    Oct 19, 2017, 16:03 PM by Matthew Vance
    Which markets are more likely to experience change in homeownership, and why? How will multifamily performance respond?
    Full story
  • Spencer Levy on Autonomous Driving

    Oct 16, 2017, 11:38 AM by Tim Savage
    For CRE, autonomous driving will amount to a major disruptive force. In a recent podcast, CBRE's Spencer Levy and Jeremy Neuer cover some of its less-discussed implications, including greater senior citizen mobility, job loss in car-adjacent industries, and the adaptive re-use of office spaces that include parking structures.
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  • How much do U.S. hotels depend on international guest stays?

    Oct 10, 2017, 10:52 AM by Jack Corgel
    International occupancy is an important component of U.S. hotel demand, but exactly how important has not been well-established by data from trusted industry sources. Here, we used U.S. government statistics, city travel and tourism reports, and a set of assumptions to estimate international guest stays' demand contribution, for selected large cities and the nation. We found that international visitors consume a greater share of hotel room nights than you might expect.
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  • Hurricanes contribute to decline in September employment

    Oct 6, 2017, 14:41 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employment fell by 33,000 jobs in September—the first monthly loss since September 2010—ending the longest streak of monthly job gains on record. The loss was partially attributed to last month's two major hurricanes. With downward revisions to July and August, the rolling three-month average is now 91,000 jobs, down from 185,000 last month. On a positive note, wage growth improved significantly, unemployment fell from 4.4% to 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate rose from 62.9% to 63.1%.
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  • Big data and CRE: The value of proprietary data

    Oct 3, 2017, 12:41 PM by Tim Savage
    CRE's big data will be many, many attributes observed for a limited number of properties.
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  • The rise of non-traditional rent concessions and their impact on returns

    Sep 27, 2017, 12:51 PM by Matthew Vance
    It’s no surprise that concessions are on the rise in many multifamily markets, and operators and developers are increasingly turning to non-traditional concessions. Here we show how such concessions can have a material impact on returns.
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  • The U.S. political outlook and what it means for real estate

    Sep 26, 2017, 09:50 AM by Jeff Havsy
    At our conference this month in D.C., Ken Simonson of AGC and Jamie Woodwell from MBA shared their distinct perspectives on which policy issues were potentially most consequential for real estate. Tax reform and immigration were discussed in depth.
    Full story
  • September rate unchanged: The beginning of quantitative tightening? Not quite

    Sep 22, 2017, 13:59 PM by Jeff Havsy
    At its latest meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 1.0%-1.25%. An increase is expected in December, with economic conditions generally good. Commercial real estate fundamentals remain strong, and a Q4 rebound in economic growth should keep them healthy at least through H1 2018.
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  • August jobs report falls short of expectations

    Sep 1, 2017, 13:18 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 156,000 jobs in August, which was below the consensus forecast for 180,000. Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 185,000—10,000 fewer than last month’s rolling average. This is a healthy pace and the economy remains in good shape, but job growth is starting to slow slightly: 2017 has averaged 176,000 new jobs monthly, down from 2016's 187,000. Surprisingly, wage growth has not accelerated, despite the tight labor market. August's 2.5% wage growth maintained the pace we've seen for most of the past year.
    Full story
  • Construction costs: It's the materials

    Sep 1, 2017, 12:45 PM by Tim Savage
    Does labor's relatively small share of construction costs limit the potential of labor-saving tech innovation in the industry? Meanwhile, what drives the cost of concrete?
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  • A somber reminder

    Aug 9, 2017, 14:16 PM by Tim Savage
    It's been 10 years since the GFC began. Two economists review the somber history since then.
    Full story
  • July jobs report beats expectations

    Aug 4, 2017, 13:24 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in July, which was above the consensus forecast of 180,000 jobs. Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 195,000. This is a healthy pace and the economy remains in good shape, but job growth may be slowing slightly: 2017 has averaged 184,000 new jobs monthly, down from 2016's 187,000. Surprisingly, wage growth has not accelerated, despite the tight labor market. July's 2.5% wage growth maintained the pace we've seen for most of the past year.
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  • GDP growth accelerates in Q2

    Jul 28, 2017, 12:47 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2017 grew by 2.6% at an annualized rate, in line with consensus expectations. This was the best quarter since Q3 2016 when growth was 2.8%. By comparison, growth in the second quarter last year was 2.2% and in Q2 2015 was 2.7%.
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  • A Tale of Four Markets: The causes of changing rent growth

    Jul 27, 2017, 09:50 AM by Maximilian Saia
    With Q2 2017 data finally in, we can take a fresh look at how rent dynamics have changed so far in 2017, and note some patterns in our forecasts.
    Full story
  • Has real estate been a good hedge against inflation? Will it be in the future?

    Jul 21, 2017, 13:06 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Real estate cap rates' decline alongside government interest rates over the past 30 years has buoyed returns, with property values at pace with inflation but property net income falling behind. If cap rates begin to rise, appreciation could vanish.
    Full story
  • Last-Mile Logistics

    Jul 13, 2017, 14:15 PM by Tim Savage
    A clean but powerful visualization exploring the geography of last-mile logistics.
    Full story
  • June jobs report beats expectations

    Jul 7, 2017, 14:28 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 222,000 jobs in June, which was above the consensus forecast of 170,000 jobs. Monthly job gains have averaged 194,000 over the past three months. The current unemployment rate is low, but there is no clear trend in overall job generation. Certain sectors, such as health care, continue to see growth. Other sectors, such as construction, manufacturing and transportation, remain flat.
    Full story
  • How much do transit access, proximity to downtown, and retail density influence multifamily rents?

    Jul 7, 2017, 14:15 PM by Matthew Vance
    Observing that apartment assets near light rail stations achieve higher rents and revenue than others, we looked into whether that proximity confers the advantage, and whether other factors play a part.
    Full story
  • Supply is (still) coming. Where it’s concentrated matters.

    Jun 23, 2017, 14:47 PM by Maximilian Saia
    On the strength of the current and future apartment construction pipeline, headlines and commentary are all over the place: It's common to see "boom," "explosion" and "surge" characterizing the current environment, even as reports assert that not enough housing is being built and that much more multifamily housing will be needed to keep up with demand. Which narrative is correct?
    Full story
  • Why is U.S. food consumption resisting the internet?

    Jun 21, 2017, 15:02 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Online ordering of groceries is thriving and growing across the EU, but if “clicks” are to ever penetrate “bricks” in U.S. food consumption, a hybrid model may be necessary.
    Full story
  • June rate rise: Another 25-bps increase by the Fed

    Jun 14, 2017, 16:28 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Since the Fed resumed its (so far, incremental) increases in December, long-term rates have remained stable, keeping cap rate increases limited. CRE fundamentals remain strong, so improved economic growth should lead to an extended cycle.
    Full story
  • Just how high might long-term interest rates actually go?

    Jun 7, 2017, 13:49 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Some thoughts on the factors that historically have governed the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates—and a new one.
    Full story
  • Globally, corporate real estate is “future-proofing” to manage risk

    Jun 6, 2017, 10:59 AM by Julie Whelan
    CBRE recently released the fourth installment in its reporting on corporate real estate (CRE) executives’ priorities, strategies and outlook. Conscious of the risk that continuing change in the economy, labor markets and technology and poses, CRE decision-makers are “future proofing” by improving user experiences and prioritizing agility in their space use.
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  • Three years after legalization: Marijuana real estate in Denver

    Jun 5, 2017, 13:34 PM by Matthew Vance
    With a number of states and localities having legalized (or taken steps toward legalizing) recreational marijuana in the past few years, some are looking to Denver to gauge how the industry might affect their local industrial fundamentals. In a new report, we offer a roadmap to identifying opportunity in the market, based on observations of industry dynamics in Denver.
    Full story
  • A disappointing May jobs report

    Jun 2, 2017, 14:16 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 138,000 jobs in May—well below the consensus forecast of 185,000 jobs. March and April figures were revised downward by 66,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%—its lowest level since 2001—but the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.7%.
    Full story
  • Welcoming EA's new Chairman, Dr. Richard Barkham

    Jun 1, 2017, 12:57 PM by Jeff Havsy
    We are pleased to welcome Dr. Richard Barkham, CBRE’s Global Chief Economist, to Boston as he takes on an additional role as EA’s new Chairman. From his London office and in his travels throughout the world, Richard has been frequently immersed in the global trends that are transforming the dynamics of local real estate markets. Richard’s perspective and presence will serve EA and its clients well, as we continue to build our platform and to integrate EA’s data science expertise with the global work of CBRE Research.
    Full story
  • Apartments: Are development trends hurting the new and the high-end?

    May 24, 2017, 23:46 PM by Matthew Vance
    In many markets with mature development pipelines, newer assets' effective rent growth is decelerating significantly.
    Full story
  • The Fed goes open-source

    May 9, 2017, 08:34 AM by Tim Savage
    DSGE, using Julia.
    Full story
  • April jobs growth beats forecast

    May 5, 2017, 13:36 PM by Jeff Havsy
    After a lull in March, employment growth rebounded in April. The rolling three-month average was virtually unchanged at 174,000 jobs per month and the average for the past 12 months is 186,000—so employers have not materially changed their hiring patterns. Notwithstanding the change in business and consumer sentiment since Donald Trump’s election, economic data in 2017 remain very similar to those at the end of the Obama administration.
    Full story
  • A familiar slow start for GDP growth

    Apr 28, 2017, 15:46 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Q1 GDP growth was the slowest in three years. How concerned should we be?
    Full story
  • Some interesting CRE stats for Q1 2017

    Apr 26, 2017, 14:54 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Full story
  • Millennials aren't the only ones dragging down homeownership

    Apr 17, 2017, 14:23 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    CBRE EA is engaged in exploring the implications of a turn in home purchase attitudes among millennials.
    Full story
  • New supply gives the office market its first vacancy increase in seven years

    Apr 13, 2017, 10:57 AM by Alex Krasikov
    Completions were up by 7% in Q1 2017, dramatically breaking from a four-year trend.
    Full story
  • A classification of macroeconomics tools

    Apr 12, 2017, 09:47 AM by Tim Savage
    Olivier Blanchard, Professor Emeritus of MIT's economics department, makes a very important point: different tasks require different types of tools.
    Full story
  • Autonomous driving: What it means for CRE

    Apr 11, 2017, 10:59 AM by Bill Wheaton
    It's on suburban highways and roads that the promised benefits of automated driving have the greatest potential.
    Full story
  • March jobs report: Back to reality

    Apr 7, 2017, 13:16 PM by Jeff Havsy
    U.S. employers added 98,000 jobs in March—well short of the consensus expectation for 180,000. Seasonal weather factors are partially to blame: Mild winter weather in January and February boosted job growth well above 200,000, and late-season snowstorms contributed to the poor number in March. All told, it was a solid first quarter...
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  • A more accurate historical measure of real estate stock

    Apr 6, 2017, 10:06 AM by Jing Ren
    In maintaining a historical time series of real estate stock, the industry standard approach is to calculate past quarters' stock levels by subtracting buildings from the current level according to their ages. This method doesn't account for buildings that were demolished, however, so the standard measure of historical stock is, by definition, an underestimation. To see if we can address this, we are developing a “gross” stock series that adds back...
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  • Fed Watch: Indecision by committee

    Mar 31, 2017, 12:18 PM by User Not Found
    Most FOMC members agree that rates will need to head higher in the next few years, but how quickly is a source of great debate. Don't be surprised to see even greater indecision as uncertainty rises later in the cycle.
    Full story
  • Economic uncertainty a growing concern for corporate real estate in the Americas

    Mar 29, 2017, 13:41 PM by Julie Whelan
    CBRE's recent survey shows economic uncertainty looming larger among CRE executives' concerns, second only to talent management. Half ranked economic uncertainty a top-three concern, up from last year's one third.
    Full story
  • "Curve Benders," a presentation by Spencer Levy, Head of Research, Americas

    Mar 23, 2017, 15:07 PM by Tim Savage
    Spencer Levy recently presented at the CBRE 2017 Investor Symposium. Here is a link to a recording of his presentation.
    Full story
  • February retail sales disappoint; economic and immigration policy are risks

    Mar 16, 2017, 11:42 AM by Jing Ren
    With weakness in most segments, February retail sales disappointed. Delayed tax refunds and immigration policy may have contributed to the weak retail sales—the latter a particular source of concern for retailers in markets with large immigrant populations. Policy on immigration and the economy may represent the greatest risk to retail markets over the coming quarters.
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  • What it means for real estate: The solar-EV revolution

    Mar 16, 2017, 07:40 AM by Bill Wheaton
    The prospect for suburban living has just gotten a lot brighter. Suburban houses will not only be able to generate the energy they need internally, but also fuel their cars—and all with absolutely no CO2 emissions.
    Full story
  • March rate rise: Fed looks to get ahead of inflation

    Mar 15, 2017, 15:05 PM by User Not Found
    Upward pressure on cap rates is expected, muted by strong capital flows from foreign and domestic institutional investors. CRE fundamentals remain strong overall, and improved business and consumer confidence may lead to enhanced late-cycle tenant demand.
    Full story
  • Big data and CRE

    Mar 14, 2017, 12:08 PM by Tim Savage
    CBRE has a lot of proprietary data sitting in data "puddles." Big data is creating a data "lake" from those puddles by linking data feeds, and then using the power of machine learning to derive insights for our clients. Our just-introduced Live, Work, Play (LWP) Index is an example of a big data exercise in CRE.
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  • Employment Situation: Feb 2017

    Mar 10, 2017, 14:36 PM by Jeff Havsy
    February’s jobs report was strong, with excellent headline numbers, good wage growth and rising labor force participation. Nothing in this report should give the Fed pause about raising rates next week.
    Full story
  • Higher interest rates a risk for CRE values, recession or not

    Mar 8, 2017, 11:51 AM by Serguei Chervachidze
    With the new administration at the reins and macroeconomic indicators sending mixed signals, investors are wondering what the future promises for the direction of the U.S. economy commercial real estate. This seems to be certain in investors’ minds: interest rates are likely to increase—at least in the medium term, if not in the long run. What would such increases imply for CRE, and particularly for CRE values?
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  • How does the economic cycle influence the length of office leases?

    Feb 27, 2017, 16:18 PM by Alex Krasikov
    With some recent interest in whether the economic cycle affects the length of office leases, we decided to look at quarterly U.S. office-leasing data for the past 35 years...
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  • It's not a recession you should be thinking about... It's three recessions

    Feb 16, 2017, 22:08 PM by Jing Ren
    Every economic recession has its unique origins, but it can also usually be characterized by the macroeconomic scenario that sparked it. The three scenarios that typically cause recessions have unique impacts on individual markets and property types and are the key to understanding how your portfolio will weather recessions to come.
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  • Apartment rents: Unpacking the statistics

    Feb 9, 2017, 08:22 AM by Matthew Vance
    New York City drives a lot of trends, including our calculation of rent growth for the Sum of Markets. Year-over-year effective rent growth was 0.2% in Q4; though it's meant to represent the national trend, for most of us, that figure doesn’t exactly fit our experience. So, how did we arrive at 0.2%?
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  • Employment Situation: January 2017

    Feb 3, 2017, 12:10 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Our outlook is unchanged after a good, but not great, report to kick off 2017.
    Full story
  • Forecaster Beware: Don’t jump the gun on Trump stimulus

    Feb 1, 2017, 15:22 PM by User Not Found
    An update on EA's U.S. macroeconomic outlook: Even if Trump is able to enact his economic policies as planned, the stimulus will be slugging against a mature economy. Higher interest rates, the strong dollar, and a tight labor market are enough reason to believe that the natural business cycle is on the downslope. Moreover, there is plenty of evidence that fiscal policy is less effective when the economy is at full capacity, so that will work against any stimulus as well...
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  • Fed Watch: Going with the flow

    Feb 1, 2017, 13:53 PM by User Not Found
    There's no reason for the Fed to be vocal at this point, and 2017's first FOMC meeting saw no policy changes made. The Fed is keenly aware of the heightened degree of fiscal uncertainty and clearly has not bought into the notion—already accepted by many economic forecasters—that fiscal stimulus will launch the economy into higher gear. EA's baseline outlook remains tempered as well, at least until we see where the new administration is heading.
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  • Interest rates and cap rates: A tale of two scenarios

    Jan 31, 2017, 14:47 PM by Serguei Chervachidze
    How will rising U.S. interest rates affect cap rates? It depends.
    Full story
  • Q4 2016 GDP

    Jan 27, 2017, 12:59 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Our views on the Q4 2016 GDP announcement. Steady as she goes.
    Full story
  • Live-Work-Play: A better way to classify location

    Jan 26, 2017, 12:36 PM by User Not Found
    Location, Location, Location—it’s been the mantra of real estate since the phrase first appeared in a Chicago Tribune property ad in 1926. CBRE Econometric Advisors is currently developing a Live-Work-Play Index that classifies locations based on objective analysis rather than subjective bias.
    Full story
  • Unpacking recent U.S. population growth

    Jan 24, 2017, 09:46 AM by User Not Found
    What were the trends in U.S. population growth and migration in 2016 and why do they matter to CRE?
    Full story
  • What do advances in automation promise for office demand?

    Jan 19, 2017, 08:34 AM by Tim Savage
    Automation is suddenly making headlines in business and finance news reporting. In a recent ViewPoint, I address the broad issue of automation permanently displacing certain types of workers, and what implications that might hold for CRE.
    Full story
  • How resilient are U.S. office markets to a recession?

    Jan 18, 2017, 09:24 AM by Serguei Chervachidze
    Whether it’s a year or eight years away, investors are wondering what the next recession will mean for CRE performance: Will certain markets or asset types be more immune to its negative effects than others? How will markets differ in their speed to recovery? In a recent study, we examined the effects of a major 2008-type recession on rents and vacancy in the 10 largest U.S. office markets, finding major response differences.
    Full story
  • What trade barriers might mean for U.S. warehouse demand

    Jan 12, 2017, 10:04 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Changes proposed by the coming administration could have a substantial effect on warehouse demand trends. Recently at EA we crunched the numbers and came up with some results...
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  • We've already had this debate

    Jan 10, 2017, 10:04 AM by Tim Savage
    Since the global financial crisis, we have seen numerous studies of fiscal policy, and of the so-called fiscal multiplier, which measures the response of economic variables to a one-time increase in government spending. Since the November election, there has been much talk about such spending—specifically, on infrastructure. Given recent research, however, this infrastructure spending may not be particularly stimulative.
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  • Employment Situation, December 2016

    Jan 6, 2017, 13:54 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Today's December employment report had a relatively low headline number, but also a lot of positive data behind it. Revisions to October and November jobs numbers showed a net gain of 19,000 jobs, though the three-month rolling average fell to 165,000, a drop of 11,000 from last month.
    Full story
  • Welcome!

    Dec 29, 2016, 16:03 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Welcome to your new CBRE EA web portal, created to improve your experience in accessing CBRE EA’s data warehouse, tools and analysis. It features streamlined navigation, an improved design, and this new blog, Deconstructing CRE, which will be a source of ongoing discussion and thought leadership regarding topics relevant to the CRE community. As the portal will continue to evolve, we look forward to and appreciate your feedback.
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  • Retailers thankful for a confident U.S. consumer

    Dec 26, 2016, 14:37 PM by User Not Found
    Concern about a slowdown in consumer spending can go on the back burner, thanks to recently revised data from the BEA. The latest release shows significantly better Q3 personal consumption growth (2.8%) that was initially estimated (2.1%).
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  • Employment Situation, November 2016

    Dec 2, 2016, 11:32 AM by Jeff Havsy
    November's unemployment report was solid, but not spectacular. The economy added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, a nine-year low.
    Full story
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