Since the early 2000s, more people began favoring walkable urban environments over traditional suburbia. Surprisingly, this shift to urban living did not cause CBD rent growth to outpace the sleepier suburbs.

A common question in the real estate forecasting business is: what city will be the next Austin? Austin has had a growing prominence of professional services, but other cities deserve a close look.

Insurance is comprising a larger share of total operating expenditures, especially in states with significant climate change exposure.

In the eyes of the international media, San Francisco has become the poster child for “the death of urban retail.” The media’s obsessive focus on Downtown San Francisco, however, masks nuances in the broader Bay Area retail market.

Industrial availability rates are generally below historic norms nationwide, but fundamentals are expected to remain soft through mid-2024.

Plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales have grown spectacularly over the past decade. Industry has responded by planning to expand North American battery plant capacity by 370% by 2025.

Many pandemic-accelerated trends are reverting to the mean. Both e-commerce sales and industrial & logistics leasing have moderated and multifamily vacancies in Manhattan are again the lowest nationally. What about office leasing?

Over the past few years, property & casualty insurance has become more expensive and generally less available as certain carriers have withdrawn from states like Florida and California that are seen to be most at risk to climate change effects.

Some logistics occupiers, especially general merchandisers, e-commerce companies and home-improvement retailers, are cutting their space commitments. This is resulting in an uptick in sublease space, particularly for warehouses larger than 300,000 sq. ft.

To no one’s surprise, multifamily growth is slowing from the pre-COVID trend and certainly from recent years. Where rents are slowing the most is more surprising.

The housing market is in uncharted territory as affordability is worse than it was at the height of the mid-2000s housing mania while the for-sale inventory is at a multi-decade low. So, what does this mean for commercial real estate?

Recession fears have been top of mind, but an upbeat labor market, the resilient consumer, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and falling inflation have engendered hopes from some observers of a so-called “soft landing.”

Our H1 2023 Cap Rate Survey results provide clues about how asset pricing has evolved during the year’s first six months.

As a subscriber of CBRE EA, you have exclusive access to the underlying data of the H1 2023 Cap Rate Survey (CRS). The CRS captures more than 3,000 cap rate estimates across more than 50 geographic markets to generate key insights from a wealth of data.

The headlines say it's time to divest U.S. commercial real estate. But Modern Portfolio Theory finds that the optimal commercial real estate portfolio would include more than 50% exposure to U.S. real estate with the balance favoring APAC.

In the 1990s, when regional malls held sway in American culture, the mega-sized Galleria and NorthPark Center were prominent features of Dallas’s retail landscape. Fast forward 20-30 years, and retail real estate has followed Dallas’s explosive population growth northward.

For the first time since 2006 the retail availability rate across America’s central business districts (CBD) today is higher than in the suburbs. Chalk it up to another enduring effect of the rise of remote work.

Multifamily vacancy rates, currently hovering near pre-COVID levels, are poised to increase. A moderate recession—which we believe will begin later this year—will temper household formation and lead to higher vacancy in every major market.

Multifamily vacancy rates, currently hovering near pre-COVID levels, are poised to increase. A moderate recession—which we believe will begin later this year—will temper household formation and lead to higher vacancy in every major market.

It is widely believed that Industrial real estate clusters along highways. We analyzed metro Atlanta, an important logistics hub serviced by multiple interstates and state highways, to test this hypothesis.

Transaction activity is down due to wide bid-ask spreads. Meanwhile, REIT implied cap rates have increased sharply, particularly for office space, as manifested in significant discounts to NAV.

The office market has been on its back before. Past experience tells us the preconditions to recovery include a throttling back of the new supply pipeline and painful distress sales that provide necessary price signals.

Migration—both domestic and international—is the most important factor influencing population change within American communities. New Census Bureau data shows how migration has impacted population change in U.S. counties.

The industrial sector saw a 70-basis-point increase in availability in the first quarter. Nevertheless, availability should remain below historic norms for the foreseeable future, a fact that distinguishes industrial from most other property types.

Is every real estate deal unique? Or does each deal provide a point in a broader spatial pattern? To answer these questions, CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA) mapped all the industrial property sales in Southern California over the past two years and then applied geospatial analytics to identify trading patterns.

Many multi-asset investors use real estate investment trusts (REITs) to gain or supplement their exposure to property without purchasing the underlying asset. However, over short time-horizons REITs can often mirror the volatility of the broader securities market rather than the steadier, income-driven performance of private equity real estate.

Commercial real estate (CRE) is facing cyclical headwinds. Asset values have eroded this year due to the impact of rising interest rates and cap rates on equity and debt availability and underwriting. The stark interest rate risk has overshadowed CRE fundamentals for the time being. But we expect values will begin stabilizing later this year.

Just as velocity of money (nominal GDP/money supply) is an important driver of monetary inflation, a greater influx of cash flow into commercial real estate (CRE) is a fundamental driver of property value appreciation.

‘Live-Work-Shop’ neighborhoods are providing a silver lining for the beleaguered office sector. Many prominent Live-Work-Shop neighborhoods are outperforming the broader market in which they reside.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes have stalled national home price appreciation and even caused notable declines in some markets.

Today, according to the Federal Reserve, commercial real estate loans comprise 43% of smaller banks’ assets. Encouragingly, deals were underwritten at more conservative LTVs than in the years before the Global Financial Crisis, and valuations have grown significantly over the past decade— up 42% for multifamily and 14% for office. This provides some cushion for regional banks amid higher cap rates.

As a subscriber of CBRE Econometric Advisors, you have exclusive access to the underlying data of our recently published H2 2022 Cap Rate Survey. The survey, reflecting 3,600 cap rate estimates, sheds light on how investor sentiment is changing amid uncertain market conditions.

Had retail space been overbuilt in previous cycles? Is it just now reaching supply-demand equilibrium?

Fiscal stimulus is in the rear-view mirror, excess savings are quickly dwindling and consumers must contend with higher interest rates.

Products manufactured in the U.S., and the markets where they are manufactured, continues to evolve. Looking at how each metro’s share of U.S. manufacturing employment has changed since 2010 provides a glimpse into this evolution.

With the release of the 2020 Census data, we can compare actual versus expected population growth for the 2010-2020 period.

When it comes to cutting carbon emissions at commercial buildings, timing may not be everything, but it means a great deal. The longer a property owner waits to begin lowering emissions, the higher an asset’s carbon budget will be.

Tech companies account for 40% of total layoff announcements, which are approaching levels of the dot-com-crash era. But many former tech workers are finding new employment quickly with non-tech companies, helping to boost productivity across the economy.

Hardly any new retail space has been constructed during the past decade. Meanwhile, brick-and-mortar retail sales have risen as Americans spend more on experiences at places like restaurants, cafes and breweries. We expect a continued fall in the ratio of absorption to new stock.

Just how vulnerable are real estate markets to natural hazards? We looked to Miami—a city associated with strong tropical storms and at the frontier of climate change—to analyze vulnerability. Going forward, CBRE Econometric Advisors will be using the power of maps to view real estate in a new dimension.

The return of East Asian visitors will be a plus for the American hotels, especially in Hawaii, major West Coast markets, and premier leisure destinations like Las Vegas and Orlando.

Extraordinary industrial tenant demand amid historically tight availability has forced price-conscious tenants to older, less functional assets, but now the picture is changing. Tenants whose leases are rolling over will have abundant, amenity-laden space options, further disadvantaging older, less functional properties.

Multifamily demand is slowing amid worrying signals about the direction of the economy. Nevertheless, structural supply shortages remain and most major cities have plenty of headroom to build more units.

The sooner commercial properties begin the process to become net zero by 2050, as called for in the Paris Climate Agreement, the sooner property owners can realize the benefits of limited carbon footprints and lower energy costs.

Ostensibly, office attendance and hotel demand are recovering together but evidence that one causes the other is thin. Certainly, increased hotel demand could boost office attendance as out-of-town senior leaders or vendors fly in for face-to-face meetings, encouraging local workers to venture into the office.

Commercial real estate is often thought of as a reliable inflation hedge. However, real estate’s ability to hedge inflation is not a foregone conclusion. Each cycle is different, and each property type will respond to macro trends in different ways.

Historically, for-sale housing affordability and multifamily vacancy rates have been correlated, though a causal relationship between the two is not always apparent.

Availability rates are below their historical averages in nearly all U.S. industrial markets with especially tight conditions in port markets.

Economists use the Gini coefficient to measure income inequality within a nation or subgroup. This same tool can illuminate how office vacancy is distributed within office markets nationally.

Despite significant interest rate hikes to tackle inflation, commercial real estate investment volume in H1 2022 topped that of other recent late-cycle years.

Inflation’s deleterious effect on consumer spending means investors should take into consideration both CBRE EA's baseline forecast, which envisions a near-term moderation of inflation, and downside forecast, which assumes high inflation persists for longer.

Real estate’s relatively high-income returns can help to offset periods of capital value deprecation.

Publicly traded U.S. real estate investment trusts were slow to adopt green bonds but issuance has exploded over the past five years.

Gloomy sentiment surveys suggest consumers should be pulling back on purchases. However, reported retail sales show that consumers are spending freely.

How much office space a company leases is a bellwether not only of near-term space usage, but future growth expectations.

Despite steady completions, multifamily rents spiked 15.5% for the 12 months ending March 31, 2022. Clearly, more housing supply is needed. But how much?

CBRE EA’s market analysis shows that a one percentage point increase in e-commerce sales has only a slightly negative impact on 5-year brick-and-mortar rent growth.

Tenant preference for the best office properties can be seen in both absorption and rent trends. Since 2018, starting rents across these five CBDs have grown13% at prime buildings versus only 2.5% in non-prime buildings.

CBRE Econometric Advisors believes Class A landlords in markets with abundant new space will have to compete more intensely to secure tenants that may be shrinking their overall footprint due to the rise of remote work.

Periods of high inflation—especially the 1970s and early 1980s—have had a significant impact on hotel gross operating profit (GOP) margins.

While an inverted curve can sometimes spell trouble for the U.S. economy, it’s not always a negative sign for commercial real estate values.

CBRE’s U.S. Cap Rate Survey reflects the input of hundreds of our Capital Markets and Valuations professionals on how sentiment and pricing are changing across multiple dimensions of commercial real estate nationwide.

Perhaps virtual work is a tailwind, rather than a headwind, for both markets and assets that are best positioned to capitalize on new working styles.​

The Great Resignation seems to vary greatly by age. Labor force participation is lowest, relative to history, among 55+ workers. Questions remain about the bulk of workers between 25 and 54.

As restaurants, bars and other urban amenities reopened, apartment fundamentals began to recover.

Cities with the highest growth prospects tend to have both highly skilled workforces and moderately priced housing.

The office supply pipeline is active for 2022 and just over 50% of this space is pre-leased. See the total rentable area underway and the pre-release rates for top office markets.

Although industrial remains the star property type, the composition of leasing activity appears to be shifting.

CBRE EA showcases one meaningful chart each week. This week see how office occupancy impacts sales volume.

Through the USPS, we were able to obtain a large dataset that opened our eyes to a few other trends in 2020, highlighting the impact COVID had on permanent relocations. The data shows that people who are leaving their homes are not going far; most people moved within 100 miles.

Looking ahead, a return to the devastating economic conditions we saw in April is unlikely. Assuming the U.S. can both control the rate of COVID-19 transmission and deliver the right cocktail of policy responses, we think it is likely that the economic contraction in 2020 can be limited to 5%, followed by 5% growth in 2021.

The U.S. economy is expected to end the year nearly 4% below 2019 levels. If future COVID-19 transmissions can be controlled, we expect economic growth will hit 6% in 2021.