CBRE EA Blog: Deconstructing CRE

  • GDP rises 2.6% in Q4; trade & inventory weigh down growth

    Jan 26, 2018, 13:15 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in Q4—slower than both the 3.2% registered in Q3 and the 3.0% consensus estimate. The weaker-than-expected growth reflected some drag from net exports and inventories, which somewhat offset the quarter's strong consumer spending. Government spending rose 3%, amid post-hurricane rebuilding efforts. For the year, GDP grew by 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016.
  • GDP rises 3% despite hurricanes

    Oct 27, 2017, 14:36 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q3 2017, surpassing the 2.5% consensus estimate. This was the best third quarter since Q3 2014—when growth was 5.2%—and it was only the third time that growth has reached 3% or higher in the past 12 quarters.
  • A somber reminder

    Aug 9, 2017, 14:16 PM by Tim Savage
    It's been 10 years since the GFC began. Two economists review the somber history since then.
  • Just how high might long-term interest rates actually go?

    Jun 7, 2017, 13:49 PM by Bill Wheaton
    Some thoughts on the factors that historically have governed the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates—and a new one.
  • Forecaster Beware: Don’t jump the gun on Trump stimulus

    Feb 1, 2017, 15:22 PM by James Bohnaker
    An update on EA's U.S. macroeconomic outlook: Even if Trump is able to enact his economic policies as planned, the stimulus will be slugging against a mature economy. Higher interest rates, the strong dollar, and a tight labor market are enough reason to believe that the natural business cycle is on the downslope. Moreover, there is plenty of evidence that fiscal policy is less effective when the economy is at full capacity, so that will work against any stimulus as well...
  • Fed Watch: Going with the flow

    Feb 1, 2017, 13:53 PM by James Bohnaker
    There's no reason for the Fed to be vocal at this point, and 2017's first FOMC meeting saw no policy changes made. The Fed is keenly aware of the heightened degree of fiscal uncertainty and clearly has not bought into the notion—already accepted by many economic forecasters—that fiscal stimulus will launch the economy into higher gear. EA's baseline outlook remains tempered as well, at least until we see where the new administration is heading.
  • Interest rates and cap rates: A tale of two scenarios

    Jan 31, 2017, 14:47 PM by Serguei Chervachidze
    How will rising U.S. interest rates affect cap rates? It depends.
  • Q4 2016 GDP

    Jan 27, 2017, 12:59 PM by Jeff Havsy
    Our views on the Q4 2016 GDP announcement. Steady as she goes.
  • What do advances in automation promise for office demand?

    Jan 19, 2017, 08:34 AM by Tim Savage
    Automation is suddenly making headlines in business and finance news reporting. In a recent ViewPoint, I address the broad issue of automation permanently displacing certain types of workers, and what implications that might hold for CRE.
  • What trade barriers might mean for U.S. warehouse demand

    Jan 12, 2017, 10:04 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Changes proposed by the coming administration could have a substantial effect on warehouse demand trends. Recently at EA we crunched the numbers and came up with some results...
  • We've already had this debate

    Jan 10, 2017, 10:04 AM by Tim Savage
    Since the global financial crisis, we have seen numerous studies of fiscal policy, and of the so-called fiscal multiplier, which measures the response of economic variables to a one-time increase in government spending. Since the November election, there has been much talk about such spending—specifically, on infrastructure. Given recent research, however, this infrastructure spending may not be particularly stimulative.


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