A unique element of EA’s value stream is the management, improvement, and development of rent “price determination models” and the identification and evaluation of those rent inputs and resulting outputs on an ongoing basis. In partnership with EA’s founder, Professor Bill Wheaton from the MIT Center of Real Estate, EA has developed a new rent series that leverages a repeat rent methodology – the gold standard in economics.

Multifamily fundamentals weakened in Q4 2020 as COVID-19 continues to take a toll on the U.S. economy. The vacancy rate for our national sample of properties increased to 4.5%. Average monthly rents posted their largest Y-o-Y decline in 10 years, falling 4.2%. The supply pipeline remains strong, with stock growing a healthy 1.7% Y-o-Y.

We expect national multifamily fundamentals to bottom out in early 2021 and to recover by mid-2022 with smaller markets leading the recovery in early 2022 followed by major metros. The long-term outlook for multifamily remains strong, with both rent and vacancy expected to recover to pre-COVID levels by Q2 2022.

Riding strong pre-COVID demand, and supported by generous federal and state stimulus packages, multifamily fundamentals were only modestly impacted by pandemic-related economic shocks in Q2 2020. The long-term outlook for multifamily remains strong, with both rent and vacancy expected to recovery to pre-COVID levels by Q1 2022.

Based on preliminary data, CBRE EA estimates a Q2 2020 vacancy rate of 4.6% for our national sample of professionally managed multifamily properties, up 70 basis points (bps) year-over-year and 40 bps quarter-over-quarter.

Multifamily fundamentals are projected to follow a similar shape as the U.S. economy over the next two years: a sharp downturn followed by a quick recovery.

Though apartment fundamentals are expected to hit their weakest points one quarter later than employment, they are also projected to return to pre-COVID levels more quickly, hitting Q1 2020 levels one quarter earlier, in Q1 2022.