Though apartment fundamentals are expected to hit their weakest points one quarter later than employment, they are also projected to return to pre-COVID levels more quickly, hitting Q1 2020 levels one quarter earlier, in Q1 2022.

Based on preliminary data, we estimate a 4.3% vacancy rate for CBRE EA’s national sample of professionally managed apartments in Q1 2020—down 30 bps year-over-year and up 20 bps quarter-over-quarter.

Although GDP and job growth are slowing, unemployment remains near its cyclical low and consumer spending is showing resilience. While the economy remains healthy and broadly supportive of property market fundamentals, absorption of real estate will likely slow through 2020.