EA Full Picture: Matt Mowell and Michael Leahy

The Full Picture, September 2026 edition is now available. In this report we translate the macroeconomic backdrop and what it means for all commercial real estate sectors. We draw conclusions to bring one full view.

Key Insights

• The U.S. economy continues to push ahead despite the headwinds of slow hiring, heightened energy prices, and general uncertainty. The AI build-out has emerged as the preeminent theme of this cycle. Meanwhile, financial markets are busy fulfilling AI’s insatiable appetite for capital and contending with stubborn inflation levels.
• Many of these factors, including renewed uncertainty about the Fed’s course of action, have triggered an upward shift across the yield curve. Despite this upward creep in rates, REIT performance, which tends to mimic broader public equities in the short term, has been strong this year with the data center group unsurprisingly being a leader. Also, credit markets are accommodative with 2026 CMBS issuance on track to surpass last year. In sum, some components of CRE capital markets look good.
• Regardless of this momentum there is reason to think that the investor market could be seeing a bit of a ‘vibe shift’ as many buyers appear to be a tad more cautious. Sales volume is on track to exceed the doldrums of recent years, but it may not meet the expectations from nine months ago. This weaker capital momentum foreshadows our forecast wherein income, not appreciation, will drive performance. Of note are current vintages of office and retail which offer a noticeably higher income return.