Deconstructing CRE

August jobs report: Job gains & wage growth top expectations

by Nikhil Mohan | Sep 7, 2018

201,000 jobs were added in August; wage growth registered 2.9%, year over year. Financial markets' mild reaction today suggests a wait-and-see perspective on the stronger wage growth.

Extended cycle? Extended slow growth

by Wei Luo and Alex Krasikov | Aug 15, 2018

Why hasn’t rental growth climbed higher during this economic expansion?

Q2 GDP Growth Strongest Since 2014

by Tim Savage | Jul 27, 2018

GDP growth in Q2 was a strong 4.1%, driven by broad gains in consumption, exports, investment and government spending.

Trade disputes so far having little impact on CRE

by Nikhil Mohan and Tim Savage | Jul 18, 2018

The U.S. and China recently placed import tariffs on $34 bn of each other’s products. The U.S. has also threatened tariffs on imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico. Should the trade disputes escalate, industrial space demand will likely decline.

Asian investors are getting less bang for their buck in the U.S.

by Richard Barkham and Taylor Jacoby | Jun 25, 2018

Rising U.S. interest rates and an uncertain outlook for the dollar have driven up hedging costs for Asian investors over the past year. This is beginning to impact U.S. CRE, with Asian investment volume down 62% year-over-year in Q1…

Rising trucking costs could mark a tipping point for U.S. consumer prices

by Nikhil Mohan | Jun 21, 2018

A significant (and worsening) shortage of truck drivers is raising shipping costs, which may spark the expected inflationary pressures that have thus far remained absent…

Presentation Slides: Machine Learning and Finance

by Tim Savage | Jun 15, 2018

And now for something completely different…

Trade Wars: which real estate properties lose the most? ​

by Bill Wheaton | May 25, 2018

The recent U.S.-China rhetoric may turn out to be just that, but we should consider what such a war might do to commercial real estate.

Industrial automation may reduce net demand for industrial space

by Bill Wheaton | May 18, 2018

Will automation radically change the service sector's demand for space? U.S. manufacturing has been automating for decades—here we look at how robots and automation have impacted U.S. industrial space markets since 1990.

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Deconstructing CRE

  • August jobs report: Job gains & wage growth top expectations

    Sep 7, 2018, 14:11 PM by Nikhil Mohan
    The U.S. economy added 201,000 jobs in August, beating market expectations. Unemployment remained at 3.9%, while labor force participation fell slightly, to 62.7%. Revisions lowered the new jobs tally for June and July by 50,000. Having averaged 207,000 new jobs monthly, this year likely will be the strongest for employment since 2015. Year-over-year wage growth was 2.9%—a sign that wages might finally rise higher after years of sluggish gains. Financial markets' mild reaction today suggests that they will wait to see whether wage growth continues its upward trend in the coming months...
  • Extended cycle? Extended slow growth

    Aug 15, 2018, 12:47 PM by Wei Luo
    Why hasn’t rental growth climbed higher during this economic expansion?
  • July jobs report: Moderate growth shows economy remains on solid footing

    Aug 3, 2018, 14:15 PM by Tim Savage
    U.S. employment rose by 157,000 jobs in July—short of both the consensus expectation for 190,000 and the past year's average monthly gain of 203,000. Excluding losses from the Toys R Us bankruptcy, the figure was very close to target. Unemployment fell slightly to 3.9%, while labor force participation went unchanged at 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents month-over-month, and wages were up 2.7% year-over-year. Substantial revisions to May and June jobs numbers resulted in a net gain of 59,000 jobs. The past year has seen employment grow by nearly 2.4 million jobs...
  • China real estate market likely to fend off double threat

    Aug 2, 2018, 11:20 AM by Henry Chin
    Many critics claim that China’s property market is entering choppy waters, given escalating trade conflict with the U.S., domestic developers' mounting debt, and unprecedented deleveraging. The reality is more nuanced; while some sectors may endure short-term discomfort, the resilient market is likely to emerge unscathed from the current turbulence. Recent government measures, such as those opening the financial sector to qualified foreign investors and relaxing some FDI restrictions, are likely to offset much of any negative impact...

Featured Articles

U.S. Macro Outlook and Forecast Scenarios, Q4 2017

Feb 13, 2018, 15:28 PM by Nikhil Mohan
The U.S. economy ended 2017 on a relatively strong note, its 2.3% GDP growth up from 2016's 1.5%. January’s impressive jobs report and jump in wage growth further demonstrated the domestic economy’s strength. The new tax plan should encourage firms to invest more in their factories and workers, likely pushing wage growth and productivity higher. Given the shrinking labor pool, job growth will moderate; overall, though, strong consumption spending, higher private investment and fiscal expansion will ensure solid growth in 2018. The investment environment for U.S. real estate remains attractive due to strong fundamentals and limited risk.


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