Deconstructing CRE

What construction delays might we see in Q4 2018?

by Nathan Adkins | Dec 4, 2018

Recent construction data suggest that multifamily supply growth will peak in Q4 2018 and correct to near the 10-year average by 2020. But don’t completions routinely come in at 15-25% under the projections?

Why firms choose “edge cities”: Arlington and Queens

by Bill Wheaton | Nov 21, 2018

Rents and commercial values in Queens and Arlington will certainly rise, but the broadest impacts will occur residential areas radiating out from these two sites…

October jobs report: Strong report; higher wages are here

by Richard Barkham | Nov 2, 2018

250,000 jobs were added in October, beating expectations. All sectors of the economy reported solid gains, and wage growth for the year is at a post-GFC high.

Can landlords really pass higher property taxes on to tenants?

by Bill Wheaton | Nov 2, 2018

New research looks into the practice of passing the costs of commercial property tax hikes on to tenants.

Strongest Q3 GDP Growth Since 2014

by Richard Barkham | Oct 26, 2018

Slowing from Q2's 4.2%, GDP growth was a still-strong 3.5% in Q3, driven by a strong 4% gain in consumer spending. The deceleration reflects a downturn in exports and nonresidential fixed investment.

Extended cycle? Extended slow growth

by Wei Luo and Alex Krasikov | Aug 15, 2018

Why hasn’t rental growth climbed higher during this economic expansion?

Trade disputes so far having little impact on CRE

by Nikhil Mohan and Tim Savage | Jul 18, 2018

The U.S. and China recently placed import tariffs on $34 bn of each other’s products. The U.S. has also threatened tariffs on imports from Europe, Canada and Mexico. Should the trade disputes escalate, industrial space demand will likely decline.

Notices

 

U.S. Macro Outlook and Scenarios, Q3 2018

Our GDP forecast revised upward. A more moderate growth in 2019. A widening trade gap. Will wage growth continue? Our Q3 2018 U.S. Macro Outlook is now available.

 

Q3 2018 Flash Reports

U.S. Industrial, Retail, Office and Apartment are available on the dashboard.

EA RELEASE CALENDAR

Deconstructing CRE

  • What kind of construction delays might we see in Q4 2018?

    Dec 4, 2018, 14:19 PM by Nathan Adkins
    Recent construction data suggest that multifamily supply growth will peak in Q4 2018 and correct to near the 10-year average by 2020. If you’ve been reading EA’s Q3 2018 Apartment Overview and Outlook, you may be saying, “don’t completions routinely come in at 15-25% under the construction projections?” What kind of construction delays might we see in Q4 2018?
    Full story
  • Why firms choose “edge cities”: Arlington and Queens

    Nov 21, 2018, 11:34 AM by Bill Wheaton
    Locating up to 25,000 new employees in Arlington and Queens will certainly have its effects on local real estate. But while local rents and commercial values will definitely rise, the broadest impacts will occur in a number of residential areas radiating out from these two sites. Living out on Long Island or beyond the beltway running SW of D.C. just became a whole lot more attractive...
    Full story
  • October jobs report: Strong report; higher wages are here

    Nov 4, 2018, 20:30 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October—well above the consensus estimate of 200,000. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%—the lowest since 1969—while labor force participation increased by 20 basis points (bps) to 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents in October and are up by 3.1% over the year. Despite recent stock market volatility and potential employment impacts from Hurricane Florence, the October jobs report showed solid gains across all sectors of the economy, and wage growth for the year is at post-financial crisis highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly 60 basis points (bps) for the year. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate—a measure of markets’ expectations for inflation 10 years from now—has remained consistently above 2%, the Federal Reserve’s stated goal for inflation...
    Full story
  • Can landlords really pass higher property taxes on to tenants?

    Nov 2, 2018, 12:45 PM by Bill Wheaton
    A standard commercial lease will incorporate a share of the building’s property tax costs into the rent. In this way, landlords can automatically pass tax increases on to tenants through rent increases. But do landlords always have the market power to do this—to keep the tax “incidence,” or burden, on the tenant?...
    Full story

Featured Articles

U.S. Macro Outlook and Forecast Scenarios, Q4 2017

Feb 13, 2018, 15:28 PM by Nikhil Mohan
The U.S. economy ended 2017 on a relatively strong note, its 2.3% GDP growth up from 2016's 1.5%. January’s impressive jobs report and jump in wage growth further demonstrated the domestic economy’s strength. The new tax plan should encourage firms to invest more in their factories and workers, likely pushing wage growth and productivity higher. Given the shrinking labor pool, job growth will moderate; overall, though, strong consumption spending, higher private investment and fiscal expansion will ensure solid growth in 2018. The investment environment for U.S. real estate remains attractive due to strong fundamentals and limited risk.


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