Deconstructing CRE

Where are the workers coming from? January and February

by Bill Wheaton | Mar 11, 2019

The past year’s job growth is unsustainable without structural change in labor force participation. In the past year, participation has ticked up significantly—from a nine-year decline—but a secular reduction in job growth seems inevitable...

February jobs report: Strong wage growth offsets low job creation

by Richard Barkham | Mar 8, 2019

20,000 jobs were added in February—far below expectations for 180,000. Unemployment declined 20 bps to 3.8%, while average hourly earnings were up 3.4%, year over year—the strongest growth in 10 years.

U.S. Macro Model Briefing Note

by Nikhil Mohan | Jan 30, 2019

Our U.S. macro model is a compact model that captures the main high-level features and interactions of the U.S. economy, including the macroeconomic variables needed to drive EA’s metro-level real estate forecasts.

What construction delays might we see in Q4 2018?

by Nathan Adkins | Dec 4, 2018

Recent construction data suggest that multifamily supply growth will peak in Q4 2018 and correct to near the 10-year average by 2020. But don’t completions routinely come in at 15-25% under the projections?

Why firms choose “edge cities”: Arlington and Queens

by Bill Wheaton | Nov 21, 2018

Rents and commercial values in Queens and Arlington will certainly rise, but the broadest impacts will occur residential areas radiating out from these two sites…

Can landlords really pass higher property taxes on to tenants?

by Bill Wheaton | Nov 2, 2018

New research looks into the practice of passing the costs of commercial property tax hikes on to tenants.

Extended cycle? Extended slow growth

by Wei Luo and Alex Krasikov | Aug 15, 2018

Why hasn’t rental growth climbed higher during this economic expansion?

Notices

 

U.S. Macro Outlook and Scenarios, Q4 2018

Our latest U.S. Macro Outlook is now available! We've changed the format to follow our Overview and Outlook and Investment Outlook reports.

Download it here.

 

 

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Deconstructing CRE

  • Where are the workers coming from? January and February

    Mar 11, 2019, 15:27 PM by Bill Wheaton
    The past year’s job growth is unsustainable without structural change in labor force participation. In the past year, participation has ticked up significantly—from a nine-year decline—but a secular reduction in job growth seems inevitable...
    Full story
  • February jobs report: Strong wage growth offsets low job creation

    Mar 8, 2019, 16:10 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 20,000 jobs in February—far below expectations for 180,000. Unemployment declined 20 bps to 3.8%, while labor force participation remained at 63.2%. Average hourly earnings were up 3.4%, year over year—the strongest growth in 10 years.
    Full story
  • U.S. Macro Model Briefing Note

    Jan 31, 2019, 08:59 AM by Nikhil Mohan
    Econometric Advisors’ U.S. macro model is a compact model that captures the main high-level features and interactions of the U.S. economy, including the macroeconomic variables needed to drive EA’s metro-level real estate forecasts...
    Full story
  • December jobs report: Strong jobs growth counters market volatility

    Jan 4, 2019, 15:40 PM by Richard Barkham
    The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December—well above the consensus estimate of 176,000. Unemployment ticked up to 3.9%, while labor force participation increased by slightly to 63.1%. Positive but moderating jobs growth is expected in H1 2019...
    Full story

Featured Articles

U.S. Macro Outlook and Forecast Scenarios, Q4 2017

Feb 13, 2018, 15:28 PM by Nikhil Mohan
The U.S. economy ended 2017 on a relatively strong note, its 2.3% GDP growth up from 2016's 1.5%. January’s impressive jobs report and jump in wage growth further demonstrated the domestic economy’s strength. The new tax plan should encourage firms to invest more in their factories and workers, likely pushing wage growth and productivity higher. Given the shrinking labor pool, job growth will moderate; overall, though, strong consumption spending, higher private investment and fiscal expansion will ensure solid growth in 2018. The investment environment for U.S. real estate remains attractive due to strong fundamentals and limited risk.


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