Looking ahead, a return to the devastating economic conditions we saw in April is unlikely. Assuming the U.S. can both control the rate of COVID-19 transmission and deliver the right cocktail of policy responses, we think it is likely that the economic contraction in 2020 can be limited to 5%, followed by 5% growth in 2021.

The U.S. economy is expected to end the year nearly 4% below 2019 levels. If future COVID-19 transmissions can be controlled, we expect economic growth will hit 6% in 2021.